Wednesday 5th August data update

Each week we share a summary of local, national, and international data on the coronavirus/Covid-19 pandemic. We hope it is useful, please ask questions, or make suggestions for inclusion of data you have found useful, in our Facebook group.

Key points

  • As of 5th August there have been 269 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in Stroud. This number is five higher than we reported last week. The date of specimen for the last confirmed case was 31st July.
  • As of 5th August a total of 1,883 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in Gloucestershire. 14 cases have been added to this total since we reported on this data last week, with the last case confirmed from a specimen submitted on the 31st July.
  • Estimates by the Covid Symptom Study suggest there may be around 562 people in Gloucestershire – 168 of whom in Stroud district – who might currently have symptoms. These numbers should not a cause for alarm but – as nationally, there is still community transmission locally, so please follow the guidelines to help stop the spread and reduce the chances of passing the virus to those of us most at risk. Please book a test if you have symptoms (a new continuous cough, high temperature, or loss of smell/taste), this will help improve understanding and prevent the spread.
  • One more person has died in Gloucestershire – bringing the total to 579.
  • Across the UK, 332 people died in the past week.
  • As of 8am Tuesday 4th August, there are no coronavirus patients being treated at Gloucestershire Royal or Cheltenham General. This reflects a national trend where there are now 1,117 Covid-19 patients in hospitals in the UK, down from 1,273 a week ago. [Apologies for an error in our previous reporting of these numbers where we mistakenly reported the much lower daily numbers of patients admitted rather than the number of patients in hospital – see full details below. Thanks to Mark Anthony Mustoe for prompting the correction]
  • Over 18.5 million cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed, with over 1 million cases being confirmed for the sixth week in a row.
  • Globally, over 700,000 people have now died with their deaths attributed to Covid-19.

Local statistics

Confirmed cases in Stroud and Gloucestershire

  • As of 5th August a total of 1,883 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in Gloucestershire. 14 cases have been added to this total since we reported on this data last week, with the last case confirmed from a specimen submitted on the 31st July (this data and that below is based on analysis of spreadsheet data downloaded from the government’s coronavirus data dashboard. The dashboard provides the totals and current rates, but the local daily/weekly confirmed numbers are contained in a spreadsheet which you can download).
  • Gloucestershire has a lab-confirmed cases rate of 295 cases per 100,000 people. Gloucestershire still has among the lowest rates (23rd lowest / 127th highest last week). In plain language: after adjusting for population, fewer people have been confirmed to have the virus in Gloucestershire than in most parts of the country. It is important to note that “confirmed” cases may not reflect the true number of people who have had the virus – but nonetheless, the difference between authorities is more likely to be because of different prevalence of the virus than differences in testing (given access to testing is largely similar around England).
  • As of 5th August there have been 269 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in Stroud. This number is five higher than we reported last week. The data of specimen for the last confirmed case was 31st July.
  • Stroud has a confirmed cases rate of 224 per 100,000 people. There are 315 “Lower Tier Local Authorities” of which Stroud District Council is one. We are no longer able to ascertain a ranking as the government has changed the spreadsheet/display system, but we believe Stroud will still have among the lowest rates (27th lowest / 289th highest for the last few weeks). For comparison, the highest rate recently has been is in Leicester (1,435 confirmed cases per 100,000 people – some “Unitary authorities” are on both Lower and Upper Tier lists).
  • The chart below shows confirmed cases in Gloucestershire by week. We are currently half-way through week 31 (in which 13 cases have been confirmed), Confirmed case numbers have been broadly static for 7 weeks (since week 24, the 12th June), though the data for week 30 (20 confirmed cases) is higher than since week 23. Nonetheless these numbers continue to be low, and there is little sign of a rise – particularly given increased testing in recent weeks. The local confirmed cases trend becoming static reflects national confirmed cases data, and – though it is lower – the trend for estimates of symptomatic cases nationally too.
Source: SCCR analysis of data from the government Coronarvirus Dashboard

Estimates of local cases

Earlier this week, Gloucestershire Live reported that the Covid Symptom Study was estimating “that there are 28,976 people in Britain infected with the virus, with 562 in our county.” The article went on to say that the July 20th estimate was for just “352 active cases of Coronavirus in the county.”

The article also explained: “The map shows the estimated number of infected people in each of Gloucestershire’s six districts per 1,000,000 people. Using population estimates from the Office of National Statistics allows an estimate of the number of people with the virus in our county. Stroud is thought to have the highest number of active infections, with a rate of 1,412 per 1,000,000 people. Meaning that 168 people are thought to have the virus”. You can read about how these estimates are made on the Covid Symptom Study website. It is worth emphasising that these are estimates, and the true figure could be higher or lower. We encourage anyone with symptoms (a new continuous cough, high temperature, or loss of smell/taste) to please book a test. The Covid-19 mobile testing unit will be at Stratford Park on 6 and 7 August, and there’s also a permanent unit at Hempsted Meadow in Gloucester.

If you don’t have symptoms, please still follow the guidelines to wear masks when appropriate (they will help prevent spread of the virus if you have it but don’t have symptoms yet, or are asymptomatic – meaning you have the virus but without ever getting any symptoms), keep distance from people, and wash your hands regularly

People who have died because of Covid-19 in Stroud and Gloucestershire

  • There have been at least 579 deaths where coronavirus was mentioned in Gloucestershire since the pandemic began, in all settings (hospitals, care homes, private homes and other sites), as of ONS data to week 30 – ending 24th July 2020. One person has been added to this total since last week.
  • The same data shows 92 people have died from or with Covid-19 in Stroud district. This figure has not increased since week 24 when two people from the district died. This means there have been six consecutive weeks where no one has died with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certifcate in Stroud district (data is from ONS data on Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and place of death)
  • Last week we analysed the data for Stroud district on where people from the district who died with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate in March, April, May and June were from. You can explore the interactive map of England and Wales – which of course covers the whole of Gloucestershire.
  • Prompted by a question from Mary Moore, below we provide the numbers by place of death in Stroud and Gloucestershire:
  • In Stroud, 30 of the 92 people who died with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate died in a care home (32.6). 55 people from Stroud died in hospital (59.8%). 5 people (5.4%) died at home, and 2 people died in a hospice (2.2%).
  • In Gloucestershire, 271 of the 579 people to have died so far died in care homes (47.2%) while 264 people who died with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate (45.8%).
Bar charts detailing the number and proportion of people to die in different places for Stroud and Gloucestershire - as described.
Source: ONS filtered dataset

The PHE weekly surveillance report (30th January – 28th July 2020) shows:

  • 2,122 people have died in the South West – 18 people have died since the previous report (the same as last week and the lowest weekly number for some weeks). This remains the lowest total number of people to died with the virus of any region in England. Importantly, the number here is “the total number of people who have died in England [or in this case, the South West] and had tested positive for COVID-19 since 30th January”. There are queries about this methodology – which suggests no-one can recover from Covid-19 (Centre for Evidence Based Medicine) and die of another cause – and people who died from Covid-19 but without a test are not included. However, this only affects the PHE data – the ONS data covered below uses a different method, covering death certificates – reporting “excess deaths” above average, and cases where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate.
  • This equates to a death rate of 38/100,000 people – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is nearly three times higher: 94/100,000 in the North West)
  • 13,162 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the South West, 184 more than in the last report. This is higher than last week for the first time in 6 weeks. Bear in mind though that the data only covers the period to 28th July.
  • This equates to an incidence rate of 235/100,000 – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 624/100,000 in the North West).
  • A new surveillance report will be published on the gov.uk website soon (probably the 7th August).

National level data

Alongside our analysis below, we recommend this BBC News article “Coronavirus: Is the UK in a better position than we think?” by Health Correspondent Nick Triggle (thanks to Melissa Briggs for alerting us to this), and the Independent SAGE’s recent weekly video (from July 31st), where members of the group explore testing data, talk about their “Zero Covid” strategy, and answer questions.

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics on deaths:

  • “The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 24 July 2020 (Week 30) was 8,891; this was 68 more deaths than in Week 29.”
  • “In Week 30, the number of deaths registered was 1.8% below the five-year average (161 deaths fewer); this is the sixth consecutive week that deaths have been below the five-year average.”
  • “Of the deaths registered in Week 30, 217 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 18 weeks and a 26.4% decrease compared with Week 29 (295 deaths), accounting for 2.4% of all deaths in England and Wales.”
  • “Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available), the number of deaths up to 24 July was 371,120, which is 52,987 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 24 July 2020, 51,505 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate, 13.9% of all deaths in England and Wales.”
  • “the number of deaths for England was 348,587, which is 51,322 (17.3%) more than the five-year average.”
Source: ONS

You can read the full article and access the full data on which the article is based on the ONS website.

Cases – confirmed and estimated

Thanks to Rachel Sleigh of the Berkeley and Surrounding Area Covid-19 Community Support group, we have a new source to direct you to regarding case numbers: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases. On the 1st August 771 cases were confirmed, and the 7-day rolling average was 801.7. As you can see, this represents a slight rise since 5th July when 352 cases were confirmed and the rolling average reached a low-point of 546.1. However, it is important to bear in mind that numbers of confirmed cases are affected by availability of testing – with recent numbers particularly affected by higher rates of transmission in particular areas, rather than necessarily across the whole country. You can see where cases are being confirmed by neighbourhood (MSOA – an ONS geographic unit that covers areas of Stroud district like Stroud Town, Stonehouse, Nailsworth etc).

Source: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

Prevalence and Incidence – ONS and COVID Symptom Study app

Prevalence is the total number of estimated cases at any given time, whereas incidence is the estimated number of daily new cases.

Incidence estimates are higher than the the government’s number of “lab confirmed cases” because they are designed to estimate cases that have not been confirmed through testing

The COVID app figures:

  • COVID Symptom Study app incidence: 2,110 daily new cases (slightly higher than last week)
  • COVID Symptom Study app prevalence: 27,654 symptomatic COVID (slightly lower than last week). As the chart below shows, while this number declined rapidly from around 90,000 symptomatic cases on 11th June, it has been broadly static at around 25-30,000 symptomatic cases for every day in July. However, while last week we suggested it was rising slowly if showing any directional trend, this no longer appear to be the case – with a very slight decline since. In short: numbers are static – this is obviously better than a rise, but worse than the decline we would hope to see at this point.
Source: COVID Symptom Study App estimates

You will notice that the two different methods are diverging this week – 2,110-4,200 new daily cases, and 28,000-38,000 symptomatic cases. However, both are within the ‘confidence interval’ for each other’s estimates (in other words, when the estimate is made, there is a window given alongside the specific estimate for where the true number might plausibly be. These windows are quite large for these estimates because the number of postive tests is quite low). Read about the difference in methodology that leads to these different estimates on the COVID Symptom Study page, “What do all the different COVID figures mean and how do they compare?” – or follow the links above for further details on each estimate.

Hospital admissions and Covid-19 patients in hospital

Thanks to Rachel Sleigh of the Berkeley and Surrounding Area Covid-19 Community Support group, we have a new and better source on hospital admissions and patients in hospital: the governments coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare dashboard, from which the below screenshots are taken.

The latest data shows 74 Covid-19 patients were admitted to hospital in England on the 2nd August, together with 35 for Wales – making 109 for the UK as a whole [note: we originally reported these numbers incorrectly as 17 admissions in England making 52 in the UK, and have edited them. Thanks to Mark Anthony Mustoe for highlighting this error]. That is down from 127 a week earlier (26th July – 45 for Wales and 82 for England). By contrast, at the peak – on the 12th April – a total of 19,872 Covid-19 patients were admitted to hospital. As you can see in the graph, the trend continues to be very clearly downward – and during the next week (or two) it is possible to imagine a day or several days without hospital admissions, which is obviously really good news and a sign that the virus is not reaching many of those of us who are most at risk.

Chart showing number of patients admitted to hospital by nation of the UK, dominated by England but falling dramatically since mid-April.
Source: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare

On Tuesday 4th August, BBC Gloucestershire reported that “As of 8am this morning, there are no coronavirus patients being treated at Gloucestershire Royal or Cheltenham General” (though we understand there may still be Covid-19 patients being treated in some of the district hospitals in the county, potentially including Stroud hospital).
This reflects a national trend where, as of the 4th August, there were 1,117 Covid-19 patients in hospitals in the UK (737 in England, 270 Scotland, 110 Wales). 77 of these patients are in mechanical ventilation beds – and we can send our hopes that these people will recover.

Again the trend is clearly downward from 1,273 a week ago (868 in England, 264 in Scotland, 136 in Wales and 5 in Northern Ireland.

[Note: we reported these figures incorrectly originally, saying that “as of the 2nd August, there were 80 Covid-19 patients in hospitals in the UK (68 in England, 9 in Wales, and 3 in Scotland)… Again, the trend is clearly downward from 90 a week ago (81 in England, 7 in Wales, 1 in Scotland).” The trend is similar, but the scale is much higher than I implied, there are still a significant number of people in UK hospitals – and send apoloies for underplaying this – believing the mistake to be in reading from the wrong chart, and using numbers for patients admitted on each day rather than in hospital. Thanks to Mark Anthony Mustoe for highlighting this error.]

Source: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare

At the global level

Out analysis of data from the Johns Hopkins University tracker shows:

  • Over 18.5 million confirmed cases (18,544,820) – an increase of nearly 1.8 million cases during the week (1,782,215, the sixth week in a row with over 1 million cases confirmed. While the total number of cases confirmed each week has been rising, the number this week is very similar to last week – we might hope that represents a plateau or peak).
  • 10.6% of global confirmed cases were confirmed in the past week (this percentage increase is falling slowly, another sign that globally confirmation of cases may be peaking).
  • Over 700,000 people have now died – 701,316
  • 53,929 people died in the past week (around 20,000 more than the number who died in the previous week). In other words, 8.3% of people who died with the virus, died in the last week. This is the highest weekly total since the 2nd June, and reflects high numbers of deaths in countries where the virus is still spreading (see below).
  • 20 countries have over 200,000 cases (Argentina joins the list), and three have over 1 million confirmed cases. Below we cover details for countries with over 300,000 cases – as this now includes 12 countries
    • The USA is approaching 5 million confirmed cases – 4,771,519 cases, a weekly increase of 419,215 (9.6% – a lower increase than last week)
    • Brazil – 2,801,912 cases, a weekly increase of 318,721 (12.8% – a lower number and percentage than last week, but still higher than the week before that)
    • India – 1,908,254 – a weekly increase of 376,585 (24.6% – a higher number but lower percentage increase than last week)
    • Russia – 859,762, a weekly increase of 32,307 (3.9% – the lowest weekly increase we have reported since 2nd June when we started compiling weekly data for the country)
    • South Africa – 521,318, a weekly increase of 61,557 (13.4% – the lowest increase since 8th July when we started compiling weekly data for the country)
    • Mexico – 449,961, increase of 47,264 (11.7% – while weekly confirmed case numbers are still rising slightly, Mexico appears to be approaching a peak/plateau)
    • Peru – 439,890, increase of 44,885 (11.4% – higher than last week)
    • Chile – 362,962, increase of 13,162 (3.8% – lower than last week, making four weeks of declining weekly numbers)
    • Colombia – 334,979, increase of 67,594 (25.3% – higher confirmed cases than last week, with confirmed cases more than doubling since 15th July)
    • Iran – 314,786 cases – a weekly increase of 15,877 (7.2% –higher than last week)
    • The UK – 307,256 cases, increase of 4,961 (1.6%). This is a very similar number and percentage to last week (4,906, 1.6%). There is a broadly static rather than downward trend. There has not yet been a week with fewer than 4,000 cases since the peak.
    • Spain – 302,814, increase of 22,204 (7.9%). This is a considerable increase for the fourth week in a row – just 2,034 cases were confirmed in the week ending 9th June (a lower number than the UK has achieved for any week since peak). Confirmed cases have been increasing for 8 weeks in a row.
    • The remaining countries with over 200,000 cases are Saudi Arabia (281,456), Pakistan (281,136), Italy (248,419), Bangladesh (244,020), Turkey (234,934), France (228,576), Argentina (213,535), and Germany (213,090). Only in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Bangladesh are weekly confirmed case numbers falling, though these are also the countries where – other than Argentina – weekly confirmed case numbers are highest.
  • There are twelve countries where over 10,000 people have died where Covid-19 was involved (Colombia is added to the list this week):
    • The USA – over 150,000 people haved died – 156,839 (7,579 people died in the past week, a 5.1% increase. This is a higher number and similar rate of increase to last week. There is little sign the virus is under control in the USA)
    • Brazil – 95,819 (7,280, 8.2% – higher than last week but lower than the week before. The number of people dying each week has been roughly the same for five weeks running)
    • Mexico – 48,869 (3,993, 11.1% – the highest number for four weeks)
    • The UK – 46,295 (332 people died in the past week, a 0.7% increase, lower than last week)
    • India – 39,765 (5,572 – 16.3% – a higher number of people than last week, but a lower rate of increase)
    • Italy – 35,171 (48, 0.1% – similar to last week)
    • France – 30,297 (71, 0.2% – slightly higher than last week)
    • Spain – 28,498 (62 – 0.2% – the highest number of people to die in a week for five weeks)
    • Peru – 20,007 (1,395, 7.5%)
    • Iran – 17,802 (1,459 – 8.9% – a decline after three weeks of increases)
    • Russia – 14,465 (823, 6.0% – lower than last week)
    • Colombia – 11,315 (2,241, a 24.7% increase in a week).

It is important to say that different countries are testing and collecting data on deaths in different ways, making fair comparisons difficult. However, the Financial Times provides a useful visual narrative of the spread of Covid-19”, with charts showing comparisons between 20 countries on the best available testing measure – “excess deaths”, as well as global regional comparisons.

As of the FT’s data (13th July – we are hoping for an update next week), the “UK has one of the highest excess death rates among countries producing comparable data”. The UK has the second highest total number of excess deaths, the fourth highest rate of excess deaths per million people, and the fifth highest total excess deaths relative to the historical average. The FT say “Adjusting for population size, the hardest hit countries are Peru and Ecuador, each of which have seen more than 1,000 excess deaths per million inhabitants. The two Latin American countries have the highest excess percentage — excess deaths expressed as a share of normal deaths for the same period.”

Source: Financial Times. This chart has not been updated this week – we will replace it as soon as it is updated.

Our condolences

The point of these weekly summaries is to provide people with information on the pandemic, in the hope this encourages people to take it seriously, but without stoking fear or panic. We are aware that presenting numbers can seem abstract and fail to convey the emotional impact of what we are talking about, namely the loss of loved ones and potentially life-long impacts on health. We send our condolences and best wishes to all affected, whether in the UK, with friends and family abroad, and indeed anywhere in the world.

Notes

We welcome your suggestions for inclusion of data in these summaries. Please submit posts to our Facebook group.

Please remember we have a (growing) list of resources to support your emotional and mental health during this time on our website. The following numbers may be useful:

  • Samaritans: 116 123
  • Domestic Violence Hotline: 0808 2000 247
  • Mind: 0300 123 3393
  • Age UK: 0800 169 6565
  • Childline: 0800 1111.
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Wednesday 29th July data update

Each week we share a summary of local, national, and international data on the coronavirus/Covid-19 pandemic. We hope it is useful, please ask questions, or make suggestions for inclusion of data you have found useful, in our Facebook group.

Key points

  • As of 27th July a total of 1,869 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in Gloucestershire. 19 cases have been added to this total since we reported on this data last week. 47 cases have been confirmed in July, compared to 51 in June.
  • As of 27th July there have been 264 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in Stroud. This number is six higher than we reported last week, and the last case to be confirmed was from a specimen on the 26th July. There have been seven confirmed cases in Stroud district this month so far – more than were confirmed in June (six).
  • The Office for National Statistics has updated their map of where people have died with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate – we cover the data by areas of Stroud district below.
  • Both the ONS and the Covid Symptom Study app continue to estimate 28-29,000 symptomaticcases. It is concerning that estimates are not falling – they have been broadly similar on a daily basis during July, having been falling sharply in late June.
  • Over 300,000 cases have now been confirmed in the UK – 302,295 cases, a weekly increase of 4,906 (1.6%). This is a slightly higher number and percentage than last week (4,458, 1.5%), but still lower than the week before. There is a broadly static rather than downward trend. There has not yet been a week with fewer than 4,000 cases since the peak.
  • Over 16.5 million confirmed cases have been confirmed globally (16,762,605) – an increase of over 1.8 million cases during the week (1,802,469, the sixth week in a row with over 1 million cases confirmed, and with the number of cases confirmed each week continuing to rise).

Local statistics

Confirmed cases in Stroud and Gloucestershire

  • As of 22nd July a total of 1,869 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in Gloucestershire. 19 cases have been added to this total since we reported on this data last week (this data and that below is based on analysis of spreadsheet data downloaded from the government’s coronavirus data dashboard. The dashboard provides the totals and current rates, but not the local daily/weekly confirmed numbers – but these are available via the spreadsheets). 47 cases have been confirmed in July, compared to 51 in June.
  • Gloucestershire has a lab-confirmed cases rate of 295 cases per 100,000 people. This means that of 149 “Upper Tier local Authorities” (County Councils, for example), Gloucestershire has the 23rd lowest rate (or, alternatively, the 127th highest). The highest rate is in Leicester (1,361.1) and the lowest rate is in North East Lincolnshire (134.5). In plain language: after adjusting for population, fewer people have been confirmed to have the virus in Gloucestershire than in most parts of the country. There are only 22 equivalent local authorities where the rate is lower. It is important to note that “confirmed” cases may not reflect the true number of people who have had the virus – but nonetheless, the difference between authorities is more likely to be because of different prevalence of the virus than differences in testing (given access to testing is largely similar around England).
  • As of 27th July there have been 264 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in Stroud. This number is six higher than we reported last week, and the last case to be confirmed was from a specimen on the 26th July. There have been seven confirmed cases in Stroud district this month so far – more than were confirmed in June (six). However, the presence of a mobile testing site in Stratford Park has likely led to increased testing, meaning the higher number does not necessarily mean there are more cases than there were.
  • Stroud has a confirmed cases rate of 221.8 per 100,000 people. There are 315 “Lower Tier Local Authorities” of which Stroud District Council is one. Of these, Stroud has the 27th lowest rate (alternatively, the 289th highest). For comparison, the highest rate is in Leicester (1,361.1 confirmed cases per 100,000 people – some “Unitary authorities” are on both Lower and Upper Tier lists – because they are neither/both lower and upper tier) and the lowest rate is in Torridge (77.8).
  • The chart below shows confirmed cases in Gloucestershire by week. We are currently half-way through week 31 (in which 6 cases have been confirmed), but as the week is not complete we have left this off the chart (also as confirmations are added for the date of the specimen and therefore are only ‘up to date’ a few days after the end of a week). Confirmed case numbers have been broadly static for 7 weeks (since week 24, the 12th June). The local confirmation trend becoming static is similar to the national estimate for symptomatic cases becoming static as we entered July (see below).
Source: SCCR analysis of data from the government Coronarvirus Dashboard

People who have died because of Covid-19 in Stroud and Gloucestershire

The Office for National Statistics has updated their map of where people have died with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate.

We provide the data for Stroud district below. The data now includes deaths from June, as well as March, April and May. You can explore the interactive map of England and Wales – which of course covers the whole of Gloucestershire.

Three more people have been registered as having died with Covid-19 mentioned on their death certifcate (the total for the district is now 92 rather than 89 people) since we last shared this map. We include all the information, including those for areas where there has been no change, below:

  1. The total numbers per “Middle Super Output Areas” or MSOAs (an ONS geographical unit that covers settlements and their surroundings)
  2. The number of people who have died per 10,000 people living in the area (only Stroud Town and Ebley and Randwick have more than 10,000 residents – but this is the comparison rate that makes most sense).
  3. The areas ranked by Covid-19 deaths as a proportion of the average number of people who died between 2014-2018.

For the Stroud district, in alphabetical order:

  • Berkeley and Sharpness: 9 people have died (no change)
  • Cam: 4 people (no change)
  • Chalford and Bussage: 4 people (1 more person has died)
  • Dursley: 4 people (no change)
  • Ebley and Randwick: 11 people (no change)
  • Frampton, Whitminster and Eastington: 5 people (no change)
  • Leonard Stanley and Uley: 5 people (no change)
  • Minchinhampton and Amberey: 1 person (no change)
  • Nailsworth: 10 people (no change)
  • Painswick, Bisley and Eastcombe: 4 people (no change)
  • Rodborough and Thrupp: 4 people (no change)
  • Stonehouse: 12 people (2 more people have died)
  • Stroud Town: 4 people (no change)
  • Upton St Leonards and Hardwicke: 11 people (no change)
  • Wotton-under-Edge and Kingswood: 4 people (no change)

Death rates per 10,000 people, ranked

  • Nailsworth: 15.3
  • Stonehouse: 14.8
  • Berkeley and Sharpness: 14.0
  • Upton St Leonards and Hardwicke: 11.3
  • Ebley and Randwick: 9.3
  • Leonard Stanley and Uley: 7.4
  • Frampton, Whitminster and Eastington: 7.4
  • Chalford and Bussage: 6.3
  • Painswick, Bisley and Eastcombe: 6.0
  • Rodborough and Thrupp 5.8
  • Dursley: 5.3
  • Cam: 4.7
  • Wotton-under-Edge and Kingswood: 4.6
  • Stroud Town: 3.4
  • Minchinhampton and Amberley: 1.5

(these calculations are based on the ONS 2018 mid-year population data – but any mistakes are ours)

People who died with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate as a proportion of the 5 year average number of people to die in the area:

  • Upton St Leonards and Harwicke: 16.2%
  • Nailsworth: 14.9%
  • Stonehouse: 13.6%
  • Berkeley and Sharpness: 11.3%
  • Chalford and Bussage: 9.4%
  • Rodborough and Thrupp: 8.1%
  • Ebley and Randwick: 8.0%
  • Leonard Stanley: 7.1%
  • Cam: 4.9%
  • Dursley: 4.7%
  • Frampton, Whitminster and Eastington: 4.6%
  • Painswick, Bisley and Eastcombe: 4.6%
  • Stroud Town: 4.2%
  • Wotton-under-Edge and Kingswood: 4.1%
  • Minchinhampton and Amberley: 1.2%

(these calculations are based on the ONS deaths data from 2014-2018 – again any errors are ours).

The PHE weekly surveillance report (30th January – 21st July 2020) shows:

  • 2,104 people have died in the South West – 18 people have died since the previous report (the lowest weekly number for some weeks). This remains the lowest total number of people to died with the virus of any region in England. Importantly, the number here is “the total number of people who have died in England [or in this case, the South West] and had tested positive for COVID-19 since 30th January”. There are queries about this methodology – which suggests no-one can recover from Covid-19 (Centre for Evidence Based Medicine) and die of another cause – and people who died from Covid-19 but without a test are not included. However, this only affects the PHE data – the ONS data covered below uses a different method, covering death certificates – reporting “excess deaths” above average, and cases where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate.
  • This equates to a death rate of 38/100,000 people – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 93/100,000 in the North West)
  • 12,978 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the South West, 99 more than in the last report. This is the lowest weekly total for over 5 weeks, and it is the second week where the number of confirmed cases has fallen. Bear in mind though that the data only covers the period to 21st July.
  • This equates to an incidence rate of 232/100,000 – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 609/100,000 in the North West).
  • A new surveillance report will be published on the gov.uk website soon (probably the 31st July).

National level data

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics on deaths:

  • “The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 17 July 2020 (Week 29) was 8,823, this was 133 deaths more than Week 28.”
  • “In Week 29, the number of deaths registered was 3.0% below the five-year average (270 deaths fewer), this is the fifth consecutive week that deaths have been below the five-year average”
  • Of the deaths registered in Week 29, 295 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 17 weeks and a 19.4% decrease compared with Week 28 (366 deaths), accounting for 3.3% of all deaths in England and Wales.
  • “Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available), the number of deaths up to 17 July was 362,229, which is 53,148 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 17 July 2020, 51,264 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate, 14.2% of all deaths in England and Wales.”
  • “the number of deaths for England was 340,267, which is 51,454 (17.8%) more than the five-year average. Of these, 48,692 deaths (14.3%) mentioned COVID-19.”
Source: ONS

You can read the full article and access the full data on which the article is based on the ONS website.

Prevalence and Incidence – ONS and COVID Symptom Study app

Prevalence is the total number of estimated cases at any given time, whereas incidence is the estimated number of daily new cases.

Incidence estimates are higher than the the government’s number of “lab confirmed cases” because they are designed to estimate cases that have not been confirmed through testing

The COVID app figures:

  • COVID Symptom Study app incidence: 1,884 daily new cases (this is lower than last week)
  • COVID Symptom Study app prevalence: 29,175 symptomatic COVID. As the chart below shows, while this number declined rapidly from around 90,000 symptomatic cases on 11th June, it has been broadly static at around 25-30,000 symptomatic cases for every day in July – rising slowly if showing any directional trend.
Source: COVID Symptom Study App estimates

You will notice that the two different methods give quite similar results – 1,900-2,800 new daily cases, and 28,000-29,000 symptomatic cases. Both are within the ‘confidence interval’ for each other’s estimates (in other words, when the estimate is made, there is a window given alongside the specific estimate for where the true number might plausibly be). Read about the difference in methodology that leads to these different estimates on the COVID Symptom Study page, “What do all the different COVID figures mean and how do they compare?” – or follow the links above for further details on each estimate.

Hospital admissions

The Centre for Evidence Based Medicine (CEBM) publish government data from “Hospital Acute Trusts data in England from major emergency departments that provide a consultant-led 24-hour service (a type 1 A&E)” with regard to admissions for Covid-19, up to 27th July. This data used to form part of the daily Cabinet Office coronavirus briefings. On the 27th July there were 14 hospital admissions – compared to a peak of 3,099 on the 31st March, and 79 on the 20th July (ie, the previous week). This clear downward trend is a good sign.

Source: CEBM

At the global level

Out analysis of data from the Johns Hopkins University tracker shows:

  • Over 16.5 million confirmed cases (16,762,605) – an increase of over 1.8 million cases during the week (1,802,469, the sixth week in a row with over 1 million cases confirmed, and with the number of cases confirmed each week continuing to rise).
  • 12.0% of global confirmed cases were confirmed in the past week (this percentage increase is at least falling slowly).
  • Nearly 650,000 people have now died – 646,812.
  • 30,043 people died in the past week (around 8,000 fewer than the number who died in the previous week). In other words, 4.9% of people who died with the virus, died in the last week. While this is still a very high number, it is the lowest number of people to die in a week since starting our weekly updates on the 12th May.
  • 19 countries have over 200,000 cases (no new countries join the list), and three have over 1 million confirmed cases:
    • The USA now has over 4 million confirmed cases – 4,352,304 cases, a weekly increase of 450,169 (11.5% – a lower increase than last week, but still larger in terms of number of cases than the previous week)
    • Brazil – 2,483,191 cases, a weekly increase of 323,567 (15.0% – a higher number and percentage after two weeks of falls)
    • India – 1,531,669 – a weekly increase of 338,591 (28.4% – higher than last week)
    • Russia – 827,455, a weekly increase of 39,609 (5.0% – a lower increase than the previous week, but very similar to the week before that)
    • Mexico – 402,697, increase of 46,442 (13.0% more confirmed cases but a slightly lower percentage increase than last week for the third week running – Mexico appears to be approaching a peak/plateau)
    • Peru – 395,005, increase of 32,918 (9.1% – higher than last week)
    • Chile – 349,800, increase of 15,117 (4.5% – marginally lower than last week, meaning three weeks of declining weekly numbers)
    • The UK – 302,295 cases, increase of 4,906 (1.6%). This is a slightly higher number and percentage than last week (4,458, 1.5%), but still lower than the week before. There is a broadly static rather than downward trend. There has not yet been a week with fewer than 4,000 cases since the peak.
    • Iran – 298,909 cases – a weekly increase of 20,082 (7.2% –higher than last week)
    • Spain – 280,610, increase of 14,416 (5.4%). This is a considerable increase for the third week in a row – just 2,034 cases were confirmed in the week ending 9th June (a lower number than the UK has achieved for any week since peak). Confirmed cases have been increasing for 7 weeks in a row.
    • Pakistan – 276,288, increase of 8,860 (3.3%, lower than last week for the third week in a row, spread of the virus is coming under control in the country)
    • Saudi Arabia – 270,831, increase of 15,006 (5.9% – lower than last week for at least the third week in a row)
    • Italy – 246,488 cases – a weekly increase of 1,736 (0.7% – very similar to last week, though there have been marginally higher confirmed cases numbers in Italy for three weeks running)
    • Turkey – 227,982, increase of 6,482 (2.9% – lower than last week for the third week running)
    • France – 221,077, increase of 6,470 (3.0% – higher than last week, for the second week running, and the highest weekly total since June)
    • Colombia – 267,385, increase of 56,347 (26.7% -very similar and high confirmed case numbers to last week, but at least a plateau from a rapidly accelerating trend)
    • Bangladesh – 232,194, increased of 21,684 (10.3 – broadly similar to last week)
  • There are eleven countries where over 10,000 people have died where Covid-19 was involved (no new countries have passed that grim threshold this week):
    • The USA – nearly 150,000 people haved died – 149,260 (7,192 people died in the past week, a 5.1% increase. This is a higher number and rate of increase to last week. There is little sign the virus is under control in the USA)
    • Brazil – 88,539 (7,052, 8.7% – marginally lower than last week. The number of people dying each week has been roughly the same for four weeks running)
    • The UK – 45,963 (456 people died in the past week, a 1% increase, very similar to week.)
    • Mexico – 44,876 (4,476, 11.1% – the highest number for four weeks)
    • Italy – 35,123 (50, 0.1% – lower than last week)
    • France – 30,226 (58, 0.2% – lower than last week)
    • India – 34,193 (5,461 – 19.0% – higher than last week)
    • Spain – 28,436 (12 – 0.04% – lower than last week)
    • Iran – 16,343 (1,709 – 11.7% – more than last week for the third week running)
    • Peru – 18,612 (5,033, 37.1% – a very high increase – potentially a statistical correction)
    • Russia – 13,642 (920, 7.2% – lower than last week).

It is important to say that different countries are testing and collecting data on deaths in different ways, making fair comparisons difficult. However, the Financial Times provides a useful visual narrative of the spread of Covid-19”, with charts showing comparisons between 20 countries on the best available testing measure – “excess deaths”, as well as global regional comparisons.

As of the FT’s data (13th July), the “UK has one of the highest excess death rates among countries producing comparable data”. The UK has the second highest total number of excess deaths, the fourth highest rate of excess deaths per million people, and the fifth highest total excess deaths relative to the historical average. The FT say “Adjusting for population size, the hardest hit countries are Peru and Ecuador, each of which have seen more than 1,000 excess deaths per million inhabitants. The two Latin American countries have the highest excess percentage — excess deaths expressed as a share of normal deaths for the same period.”

Source: Financial Times. This chart has not been updated this week – we will replace it as soon as it is updated.

Our condolences

The idea behind this summary of statistics is to help people to understand the pandemic and to reduce the spread of the virus. We know that the blunt representation of numbers can prompt feelings of grief and pain, even while they cannot convey the individuality of the people affected or the emotional toll caused to their loved ones. We send our condolences to all affected.

Notes

We welcome your suggestions for inclusion of data in these summaries. Please submit posts to our Facebook group.

Please remember we have a (growing) list of resources to support your emotional and mental health during this time on our website. The following numbers may be useful:

  • Samaritans: 116 123
  • Domestic Violence Hotline: 0808 2000 247
  • Mind: 0300 123 3393
  • Age UK: 0800 169 6565
  • Childline: 0800 1111.
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Data update Wednesday 22nd July

Each week we share a summary of local, national, and international data on the coronavirus/Covid-19 pandemic. We hope it is useful, please ask questions, or make suggestions for inclusion of data you have found useful, in our Facebook group.

Key points

  • As of 22nd July a total of 1,850 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in Gloucestershire. 13 cases have been added to this total since we reported on this data last week. 28 cases have been confirmed in Gloucestershire in July so far (50 were confirmed in June).
  • As of 22nd July there have been 259 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in Stroud. This number is one higher than we reported last week, but the last case to be confirmed was from a specimen on the 14th July. There have been two confirmed cases in Stroud district this month (6 were confirmed in June).
  • One more person has been registered with Covid-19 on their death certifcate since we reported on the data last week (ie, between 3rd and 10th July – the latest data available). They were not from Stroud – where the number of people who have died with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate is 92.
  • Both the ONS and the Covid Symptom Study app estimate a higher number of symptomatic cases around the UK this week than last week (24,000-28,000 cases). It is concerning that estimates are not falling.
  • Of the deaths registered by 10 July 2020, 50,946 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; 14.4% of all deaths in England and Wales.” (ONS)

Local statistics

Confirmed cases in Stroud and Gloucestershire

  • As of 22nd July a total of 1,850 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in Gloucestershire. 13 cases have been added to this total since we reported on this data last week (this data and that below is based on analysis of spreadsheet data downloaded from the government’s coronavirus data dashboard. The dashboard provides the totals and current rates, but not the local daily/weekly confirmed numbers – but these are available via the spreadsheets).
  • Gloucestershire has a lab-confirmed cases rate of 292 cases per 100,000 people. This means that of 149 “Upper Tier local Authorities” (County Councils, for example), Gloucestershire has the 23rd lowest rate (or, alternatively, the 127th highest). The highest rate is in Leicester (1,314.4) and the lowest rate is in North East Lincolnshire (133.3). In plain language: after adjusting for population, fewer people have been confirmed to have the virus in Gloucestershire than in most parts of the country. There are only 22 equivalent local authorities where the rate is lower. It is important to note that “confirmed” cases may not reflect the true number of people who have had the virus – but nonetheless, the difference between authorities is more likely to be because of different prevalence of the virus than differences in testing (given access to testing is largely similar around England).
  • As of 22nd July there have been 259 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in Stroud. This number is one higher than we reported last week, but the last case to be confirmed was from a specimen on the 14th July. There have been two confirmed cases in Stroud district this month.
  • Stroud has a confirmed cases rate of 217.6 per 100,000 people. There are 315 “Lower Tier Local Authorities” of which Stroud District Council is one. Of these, Stroud has the 27th lowest rate (alternatively, the 289th highest). For comparison, the highest rate is in Leicester (1,314.4 confirmed cases per 100,000 people – some “Unitary authorities” are on both Lower and Upper Tier lists – because they are neither/both lower and upper tier) and the lowest rate is in Torridge (77.8).
  • The chart below shows confirmed cases in Gloucestershire by week. We are currently half-way through week 30 (in which 2 cases have been confirmed), but as the week is not complete we have left this off the chart (also as confirmations are added for the date of the specimin and therefore are only ‘up to date’ a few days after the end of a week). Confirmed case numbers have been broadly static for 6 weeks (since week 24, the 12th June). Just as there was not enough difference to indicate a rising trend in week 27, there is not enough difference to indicate a falling trend in week 29.

People who have died because of Covid-19 in Stroud and Gloucestershire

  • There have been at least 578 deaths where coronavirus was mentioned in Gloucestershire since the pandemic began, in all settings (hospitals, care homes, private homes and other sites), as of ONS data to week 28 – ending 10th July 2020. One more person has been registered with Covid-19 on their death certifcate since we reported on the data last week (ie, between 3rd and 10th July).
  • The same data shows 92 people have died from or with Covid-19 in Stroud district. This figure has not increased since week 24 when two people from the district died. This means there have been four consecutive weeks where no one has died with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certifcate in Stroud district (data is from ONS data on Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and place of death)
  • We have previously covered a map that has been created by the Office for National Statistics shows areas of England and Wales according to how many people have died with/from Covid-19. This provides a breakdown across areas of Stroud district (by “MSOA” or “Middle Super Output Area” – an ONS geographic unit).You can explore the full ONS data by MSOA and their interactive map, and read our summary and analysis from last week.

The PHE weekly surveillance report (30th January – 14th July 2020) shows:

  • 2,086 people have died in the South West – 22 people have died since the previous report (higher than the 21 who died two weeks ago, but lower than the 33 who died last week). This remains the lowest total number of people to died with the virus of any region in England
  • This equates to a death rate of 37/100,000 people – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 92/100,000 in the North West)
  • 12,879 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the South West, 113 more than in the last report. This is the lowest weekly total for over 4 weeks, and is a welcome drop following a previously increasing trend (319 last week, 235, 160 and 148 in the weeks before that).
  • This equates to an incidence rate of 230/100,000 – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 598/100,000 in the North West).
  • A new surveillance report will be published on the gov.uk website soon (probably the 24th July).

National level data

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics on deaths:

  • “The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 10 July 2020 (Week 28) was 8,690, this was 450 deaths fewer than Week 27.”
  • “In Week 28, the number of deaths registered was 6.1% below the five-year average (560 deaths fewer), this is the fourth consecutive week that deaths have been below the five-year average; the number of deaths in care homes, hospitals and other communal establishments were also fewer than the five-year average, while the number of deaths in private homes was 706 deaths higher than the five-year average.
  • Of the deaths registered in Week 28, 366 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 16 weeks and a 31.2% decrease compared with Week 27 (532 deaths), accounting for 4.2% of all deaths in England and Wales.”
  • “Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available), the number of deaths up to 10 July 2020 was 353,407, which is 53,419 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 10 July 2020, 50,946 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; 14.4% of all deaths in England and Wales.
  • “The number of deaths for England was 332,006, which is 51,695 (18.4%) more than the five-year average. Of these, 48,388 deaths (14.6%) mentioned COVID-19.”
Source: ONS

You can read the full article and access the full data on which the article is based on the ONS website.

Prevalence and Incidence – ONS and COVID Symptom Study app

Prevalence is the total number of estimated cases at any given time, whereas incidence is the estimated number of daily new cases.

Incidence estimates are higher than the the government’s number of “lab confirmed cases” because they are designed to estimate cases that have not been confirmed through testing

The COVID app figures:

  • COVID Symptom Study app incidence: 2,103 daily new cases (this is higher than last week)
  • COVID Symptom Study app prevalence: 28,257 symptomatic COVID (for the second week running this is higher than the week before, to the point it is considerably higher than the estimate of 23,459 two weeks ago. However, the number is down from over 350,000 people on 23 of April, and over 100,000 last month).

You will notice that the two different methods give quite similar results – 1,700-2,100 new daily cases, and 24,000-28,000 symptomatic cases. Both are within the ‘confidence interval’ for each other’s estimates (in other words, when the estimate is made, there is a window given alongside the specific estimate for where the true number might plausibly be). Read about the difference in methodology that leads to these different estimates on the COVID Symptom Study page, “What do all the different COVID figures mean and how do they compare?” – or follow the links above for further details on each estimate.

Hospital admissions

The Centre for Evidence Based Medicine (CEBM) publish government data from “Hospital Acute Trusts data in England from major emergency departments that provide a consultant-led 24-hour service (a type 1 A&E)” with regard to admissions for Covid-19, up to 13th July (it’s not clear why so little new data has been added since last week which went up to the 10th July). This data used to form part of the daily Cabinet Office coronavirus briefings. On the 13th July there were 52 hospital admissions – compared to a peak of 3,099 on the 31st March, and 148 on the 6th July (ie, the previous week).

Source: CEBM

At the global level

Out analysis of data from the Johns Hopkins University tracker shows:

  • Nearly 15 million confirmed cases (14,960,136) – an increase of over 1.6 million cases during the week (1,636,606, the fifth week in a row with over 1 million cases confirmed, and with the number of cases confirmed each week continuing to rise).
  • 12.3% of global confirmed cases were confirmed in the past week (this percentage increase is at least falling slowly).
  • Over 600,000 people have now died – 616,769.
  • 38,141 people died in the past week (around 4,000 more than the number who died in the previous week). In other words, 6.6% of people who died with the virus, died in the last week.
  • 19 countries have over 200,000 cases (Colombia and Bangladesh join the list), and three now have over 1 million confirmed cases:
    • The USA – 3,902,135 cases, a weekly increase of 470,561 (13.7% – a higher number of cases than last week)
    • Brazil – 2,159,654 cases, a weekly increase of 232,830 (12.1% – a lower number and percentage than the previous week for two weeks running)
    • India – 1,193,078 – a weekly increase of 256,897 (27.4% – higher than last week)
    • Russia – 787,846, a weekly increase of 49,059 (6.6% – a higher increase than the previous two weeks, after a dip)
    • Peru – 362,087, increase of 28,220 (8.5% – higher than last week)
    • Mexico – 356,255, increase of 44,769 (14.4% more confirmed cases but a slightly lower percentage increase than last week for the second week running)
    • Chile – 334,683, increase of 15,190 (4.8% – lower than last week for the second week in a row)
    • The UK – 297,389 cases, increase of 4,458 (1.5%). This is a lower increase in numerical and percentage terms than last week – but higher than the week before. In other words, there is still a broadly static rather than downward trend.
    • Iran – 278,827 cases – a weekly increase of 16,654 (6.4% – a very similar increase to last week)
    • Pakistan – 267,428, increase of 11,659 (4.6%, lower than last week for the second week in a row, potentially a sign the virus is coming under control in the country)
    • Spain – 266,194, increase of 9,575 (3.7% – a considerable increase for the second week in a row. Confirmed cases have been increasing for 6 weeks in a row, after having been brought down very low before this)
    • Saudi Arabia – 255,825, increase of 18,022 (7.6% – lower than last week for at least the second week in a row)
    • Italy – 244,752 cases – a weekly increase of 1,408 (0.6% – very similar to last week)
    • Turkey – 221,500, increase of 6,507 (3.0% – lower than last week for the second week running)
    • France – 214,607, increase of 4,967 (2.4% – higher than any of the previous three weeks)
    • Colombia – 211,038, increase of 56,761 (36.8% – accelerating very quickly)
    • Bangladesh – 210,510, increased of 20,453 (10.8 – slightly higher than last week)
  • There are eleven countries where over 10,000 people have died where Covid-19 was involved (no new countries have passed that grim threshold this week):
    • The USA – 142,068 people have died (5,602 people died in the past week, a 4.1% increase. This is a higher number and rate of increase to last week. There is little sign the virus is under control in the USA)
    • Brazil – 81,487 (7,354, 9.9% – similar to last week)
    • The UK – 45,507 (454 people died in the past week, a 1% increase, again slightly lower than the previous week)
    • Mexico – 40,400 (4,073, 11.2% – lower than in the last two weeks)
    • Italy – 35,073 (89, 0.3% – very similar to last week)
    • France – 30,168 (136, 0.5% – higher than last week)
    • India – 28,732 (4,423 – 18.2% – higher than last week)
    • Spain – 28,424 (15 – 0.1% – lower than last week)
    • Iran – 14,634 (1,423 – 10.8% – more than last week)
    • Peru – 13,579 (1,350, 11.0% – similar to last week)
    • Russia – 12,722 (1,125, 9.7% – higher than last week).

It is important to say that different countries are testing and collecting data on deaths in different ways, making fair comparisons difficult. However, the Financial Times provides a useful visual narrative of the spread of Covid-19”, with charts showing comparisons between 20 countries on the best available testing measure – “excess deaths”, as well as global regional comparisons.

As of the FT’s data (13th July), the “UK has one of the highest excess death rates among countries producing comparable data”. The UK has the second highest total number of excess deaths, the fourth highest rate of excess deaths per million people, and the fifth highest total excess deaths relative to the historical average. The FT say “Adjusting for population size, the hardest hit countries are Peru and Ecuador, each of which have seen more than 1,000 excess deaths per million inhabitants. The two Latin American countries have the highest excess percentage — excess deaths expressed as a share of normal deaths for the same period.”

Source: Financial Times

Our condolences

The idea behind this summary of statistics is to help people to understand the pandemic and to reduce the spread of the virus. We know that the blunt representation of numbers can prompt feelings of grief and pain, even while they cannot convey the individuality of the people affected or the emotional toll caused to their loved ones. We send our condolences to all affected.

Notes

We welcome your suggestions for inclusion of data in these summaries. Please submit posts to our Facebook group.

Please remember we have a (growing) list of resources to support your emotional and mental health during this time on our website. The following numbers may be useful:

  • Samaritans: 116 123
  • Domestic Violence Hotline: 0808 2000 247
  • Mind: 0300 123 3393
  • Age UK: 0800 169 6565
  • Childline: 0800 1111.
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Monday 20 July 2020

Key Updates

  • As the school year ended giving a break to everyone involved in educating children from home or in school, we also shared a big THANKS to Parents, Carers & Teachers – and everyone involved in taking care of children’s wellbeing and learning during the pandemic.
  • The Minor Injury and Illness Unit (MIIU) at Stroud Hospital is open 8am – 6pm daily (slightly reduced hours) – but the MIIU at the Vale and others in the county will remain closed until September – full details here
  • Analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Study app, led by researchers from King’s College London and the health technology company ZOE, reveals that there are six distinct ‘types’ of COVID-19, each distinguished by a particular cluster of symptoms. 

Summary of key local, national and international news

We are now providing our main summary of local, national and international statistical data on a weekly basis rather than daily

Local

International

Notes

Please remember we have a (growing) list of resources to support your emotional and mental health during this time on our website. The following numbers may be useful:

  • Samaritans: 116 123
  • Domestic Violence Hotline: 0808 2000 247
  • Mind: 0300 123 3393
  • Age UK: 0800 169 6565
  • Childline: 0800 1111.
  • NHS 111

Thanks to everyone who helped create this update through our Facebook group. If you submit posts, we will often decline posting them to the discussion directly and instead hold them till the single daily summary – to try to reduce the number of posts in the feed and make it easier for people to follow the information. Please continue to submit posts to admins for this purpose with the appropriate flag: one of REQUEST / OFFER / UPDATE / QUESTION / COMMENTARY.

  • We now have 4,377 members. We’ve shared 161 posts in the last month. Please invite your friends to grow this community. And please do introduce yourself and let us know anything you’d like to see in the group related to coronavirus and how we can work together to get through the pandemic and its impacts.
  • Please take a look at the Group Purpose and Guidelines if you haven’t read them recently.

Wednesday 15th July

Each week we share a summary of local, national, and international data on the coronavirus/Covid-19 pandemic. We hope it is useful, please ask questions, or make suggestions for inclusion of data you have found useful, in our Facebook group.

Key points

  • As of 15th July a total of 1,837 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in Gloucestershire. In the most recent week of data available, 10 cases have been added to the Gloucestershire total.
  • As of 15th July there have been 258 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in Stroud. One case was confirmed in Stroud in the past week – on the 9th July.
  • The latest data (to 3rd July) shows one more person has died in Gloucestershire because of Covid-19 since the the week ending 27th June. They were not from Stroud – where the number of people who have died with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate is 92.
  • According to the COVID Symptom Study “26,021 people [aged 20-69] are currently predicted to have symptomatic COVID in the UK” (as of 15th July, 5:00am BST). This is slightly higher than the estimate of 23,459 last week).
  • Of the deaths registered by 3 July 2020, 50,548 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; 14.7% of all deaths in England and Wales.” (ONS)

Local statistics

Confirmed cases in Stroud and Gloucestershire

  • As of 7th July a total of 1,837 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in Gloucestershire. In the most recent week of data available, 10 cases have been added to this total (this data and that below is based on analysis of spreadsheet data downloaded from the government’s coronavirus data dashboard. The dashboard provides the totals and current rates, but not the local daily/weekly confirmed numbers – but these are available via the spreadsheets).
  • Gloucestershire has a lab-confirmed cases rate of 289.9 cases per 100,000 people. This means that of 149 “Upper Tier local Authorities” (County Councils, for example), Gloucestershire has the 23rd lowest rate (or, alternatively, the 127th highest). The highest rate is in Leicester (1,237.5) and the lowest rate is in North East Lincolnshire (129.5). In plain language: fewer people have been confirmed to have the virus in Gloucestershire than in most parts of the country. There are only 22 equivalent local authorities where the rate is lower. It is important to note that “confirmed” cases may not reflect the true number of people who have had the virus – but nonetheless, the difference between authorities is more likely to be because of different prevalence of the virus than differences in testing (given access to testing is largely similar around England).
  • As of 15th July there have been 258 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in Stroud. One case was confirmed in the past week – on the 9th July.
  • Stroud has a confirmed cases rate of 216.8 per 100,000 people. There are 315 “Lower Tier Local Authorities” (District councils, for example), of which Stroud District Council is one. Of these, Stroud has the 27th lowest rate (alternatively, the 289th highest). For comparison, the highest rate is in Leicester (1,237.5 confirmed cases per 100,000 people) and the lowest rate is in Torridge (77.9).
  • The chart below shows confirmed cases in Gloucestershire by week. Note that the confirmed cases in the two most recent weeks for which data is available are lower than for over a month, but higher than the three previous weeks. The difference is not yet substantial enough to show and increasing trend, however. We will update this chart next week.
Source: Gov.uk dashboard data, SCCR analysis

People who have died because of Covid-19 in Stroud and Gloucestershire

The PHE weekly surveillance report (30th January – 30th June 2020) shows:

  • 2,064 people have died in the South West – 33 people have died since the previous report (higher than the 21 who died in the previous period). This remains the lowest number of people of any region in England
  • This equates to a death rate of 37/100,000 people – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 90/100,000 in North West)
  • 12,766 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the South West, 319 more than in the last report. For the third week running this is a slightly higher increase than we covered last time (235 last week, 160 and 148 in the weeks before that).
  • This equates to an incidence rate of 228/100,000 – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 588/100,000 in the North West).
  • A new surveillance report for the 16th July will be published on the gov.uk website soon.

National level data

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics on deaths:

  • “The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 3 July 2020 (Week 27) was 9,140, this was 161 deaths more than Week 26.”
  • In Week 27, the number of deaths registered was 0.5% below the five-year average (43 deaths fewer), this is the third consecutive week that deaths have been below the five-year average; the numbers of deaths in care homes and hospitals were also fewer than the five-year average (88 and 634 deaths lower respectively), while the number of deaths in private homes was 755 higher than the five-year average.”
  • “Of the deaths registered in Week 27, 532 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 15 weeks, accounting for 5.8% of all deaths in England and Wales.
  • “Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available), the number of deaths up to 3 July 2020 was 344,717, which is 53,979 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 3 July 2020, 50,548 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; 14.7% of all deaths in England and Wales.”
  • The number of deaths for England was 323,905, which is 52,242 (19.2%) more than the five-year average. Of these, 48,012 deaths (14.8%) mentioned COVID-19

You can read the full article and access the full data on which the article is based on the ONS website.

According to the latest COVID Symptom Study app figures

“There are currently two main sources of information: the COVID Symptom Study app (us) and the Government’s Office of National Statistics (ONS). Both sources provide estimated prevalence and incidence rates. Prevalence is the total number of estimated cases at any given time, whereas incidence is the estimated number of daily new cases. The Government also provides the total number of lab confirmed cases everyday.

The ONS figures

“The ONS randomly invites around 8,000-9,000 households in England to participate in its testing program and uses these test results to estimate incidence and prevalence. The ONS publishes an estimated prevalence and incidence every two weeks based on their infection survey test results.”

The COVID app figures:

The COVID Symptom study team have “a two step process. First we identify app users who log new  symptoms after being healthy for at least 9 days, and estimate the proportion of newly sick app users. These individual users are then invited to have a COVID swab test provided by the Department of Health taken within 24 hours and are asked to continue logging their symptoms in the app.

The results of these tests allow us to identify the proportion of newly sick individuals who test positive for COVID-19. This two step process enables us to do more targeted swab tests focussed on sick users, who are more likely to be positive. We scale the proportion of sick users with the proportion of those testing positive to get the incidence rate and then generalize it to the wider population to give the estimated number of daily new cases across the UK.”

You will notice that the two different methods give quite similar results – 1,471-1,700 new daily cases, and 14,000-26,000 symptomatic cases (these are more different, but are still roughly of the same order of magnitude / in the same ballpark).

Hospital admissions

The Centre for Evidence Based Medicine (CEBM) publish government data from “Hospital Acute Trusts data in England from major emergency departments that provide a consultant-led 24-hour service (a type 1 A&E)” with regard to admissions for Covid-19, up to 10th July. This data used to form part of the daily Cabinet Office coronavirus briefings. On the 10th July there were 36 hospital admissions – compared to a peak of 3,099 on the 31st March, and 120 on the 3rd July (ie, the previous week).

Source: CEBM

At the global level

Out analysis of data from the Johns Hopkins University tracker shows:

  • 13,323,530 confirmed cases – an increase of nearly 1.5 million cases during the week (1,484,435, the fourth week in a row with over 1 million cases confirmed, and with the number of cases confirmed each week continuing to rise).
  • 12.5% of global confirmed cases were confirmed in the past week (this percentage increase is at least falling).
  • Over 550,000 people have now died – 578,628.
  • 34,213 people died in the past week (very slightly more but broadly the same as the number who died in the previous week). In other words, 6.3% of people who died with the virus, died in the last week.
  • 17 countries have over 200,000 cases (South Africa and Germany join the list):
    • The USA – 3,431,574 cases, a weekly increase of 435,476 (14.5% – more than last week)
    • Brazil – 1,926,824 cases, a weekly increase of 258,235 (15.5% – a lower number and percentage than the previous week for the first time in several weeks)
    • India – 936,181 – a weekly increase of 193,7646 (26.1% – a higher number and similar percentage increase to last week)
    • Russia – 738,787, a weekly increase of 39,038 (5.6% – a lower increase than last week)
    • Peru – 333,867, increase of 24,589 (8.0% – the same as last week)
    • Chile – 319,493, increase of 18,474 (6.1% – lower than last week)
    • Mexico – 311,486, increase of 43,478 (16.2% more confirmed cases but a slightly lower percentage increase than last week)
    • The UK – 292,931 cases, increase of 5,051 (1.8%). Both the number and proportional increase of cases are higher than the previous week (The methodology for reporting positive cases changed on 2 July 2020 to remove duplicates within and across pillars 1 and 2, to ensure that a person who tests positive is only counted once. Due to this change, 30,302 previously reported cases were removed from the UK total, but we were able to calculate a weekly increase of 4,021). With only a week’s data available, it is not possible to draw strong conclusions: this could either be because of an increase in transmission since lockdown was eased, or associated with particular local outbreaks (e.g. in Leicester), or with changes to testing.
    • Iran – 262,173 cases – a weekly increase of 16,485 (6.7% – a lower increase than last week – potentially indicating the current wave in Iran is being controlled again?)
    • Pakistan – 255,769, increase of 18,280 (7.7%, lower than last week)
    • Italy – 243,344 cases – a weekly increase of 1,388 (0.6% – very similar to last week)
    • Saudi Arabia – 237,803, increase of 20,695 (9.5% – lower than last week)
    • Turkey – 214,993, increase of 7,096 (3.4% – similar to last week)
    • France – 209,640, increase of 3,568 (1.7% – back to declining after a rise week)
  • There are eleven countries where over 10,000 people have died where Covid-19 was involved (no new countries have passed that grim threshold this week):
    • The USA – 136,466 people have died (4,986 people died in the past week, 3.8% of all the people to die in the USA, lower than last week. This is a higher rate of increase to last week, though lower than the week before)
    • Brazil – 74,133 (7,392, 11.1% – similar to last week)
    • The UK – 45,053 (577 people died in the past week, 1.3% increase, again slightly lower than the previous week)
    • Mexico – 36,327 (4,313, 13.5% – similar to last week)
    • Italy – 34,984 (85, 0.2% – lower than last week)
    • France – 30,032 (96, 0.3% – very similar to last week)
    • Spain – 28,409 (17 – 0.1% – lower than last week)
    • India – 24,309 (3,667 – 17.8% – similar to last week)
    • Iran – 13,211 (1,280 – 10.7% – more than last week)
    • Peru – 12,229 (1,277, 11.7% – similar to last week)
    • Russia – 11,597 (947, 8.9% – lower than last week).

It is important to say that different countries are testing and collecting data on deaths in different ways, making fair comparisons difficult. However, the Financial Times provides a useful visual narrative of the spread of Covid-19”, with charts showing comparisons between 20 countries on the best available testing measure – “excess deaths”, as well as global regional comparisons. This week, this highlights that a “surge in Latin Ameria means global daily death toll on the rise again”. 48% of daily global deaths are now in Latin America, and the US share of global daily deaths has risen again to 14%.

The Financial Times also provides and interactive tool where you can compare “Cumulative deaths atrributed to Covid-19” per million inhabitants of a county. Below is a comparison which shows the rate is highest in Belgium at 856 deaths per million (we made an error last week in suggesting it was highest in the UK), followed by the UK – 673 deaths per million, Spain, Italy, France (607, 579 and 448 deaths per million ) – and Sweden – 545 deaths per million, and the US – 392 deaths per million (in the latter two cases deaths continue to rise significantly). In Germany there have been 109 deaths per million, and in South Korea just 5.5 deaths per million

Source: Financial Times

The chart below from Johns Hopkins University (updated 15th July) shows countries as dots on a chart comparing deaths (higher the nearer the top of the chart a dot is) and population (higher the nearer the right of the chart a dot is). When a country has a higher death rate per 100,000 population, it appears above a certain diagonal line on the chart. The UK rate is 67.76 deaths per 100,000 people. This is lower than only Belgium ( Read more on Mortality Analyses from Johns Hopkins University.

Our condolences

The idea behind this summary of statistics is to help people to understand the pandemic and to reduce the spread of the virus. We know that the blunt representation of numbers can prompt feelings of grief and pain, even while they cannot convey the individuality of the people affected or the emotional toll caused to their loved ones. We send our condolences to all affected.

Notes

We welcome your suggestions for inclusion of data in these summaries. Please submit posts to our Facebook group.

Please remember we have a (growing) list of resources to support your emotional and mental health during this time on our website. The following numbers may be useful:

  • Samaritans: 116 123
  • Domestic Violence Hotline: 0808 2000 247
  • Mind: 0300 123 3393
  • Age UK: 0800 169 6565
  • Childline: 0800 1111.

Wednesday 8th July

Each week we share a summary of local, national, and international data on the coronavirus/Covid-19 pandemic. We hope it is useful, please ask questions, or make suggestions for inclusion of data you have found useful, in our Facebook group.

Key points

  • As of 7th July there have been 257 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in Stroud. No cases have been confirmed since the 29th June.
  • The UK rate is 66.64 deaths per 100,000 people, more than double the rate in any country bar the US (39.72)
  • Nearly 12 million cases have been confirmed globally – an increase of over 1.3 million cases during the week. As World Health Organization (WHO) director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said yesterday: the coronavirus outbreak is “accelerating, and we have clearly not reached the [global] peak of the pandemic.”

Local statistics

  • As of 7th July a total of 1,827 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in Gloucestershire. In the most recent week of data available, 17 cases have been added to this total. However, the figure is 433 higher than we reported last week. This is because, as explained on the gov.uk website: “Numbers of lab-confirmed positive cases throughout this website (national, regional and local authority level) now include those identified by testing in all settings (pillars 1 and 2). Due to this change many cases previously not attributed to any area are now included in area totals. This is not a recent surge in cases – the cases now being reported occurred from April onwards.”
  • Gloucestershire has a lab-confirmed cases rate of 288.4 cases per 100,000 people. This means the county is ranked 127/149 Upper Tier local Authorities. The highest rate is in Leicester (1136.2) and the lowest rate is in North East Lincolnshire (129.5)
  • As of 7th July there have been 257 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in Stroud. No cases have been confirmed since the 29th June.
  • Stroud has a lab-confirmed cases rate of 215.9 per 100,000 people. This means the district is ranked 289/315 Lower Tier Local Authorities. The highest rate is in Leicester (1,136.2) and the lowest rate is in Torridge (71.9)
  • There have been at least 576 deaths where coronavirus was mentioned in Gloucestershire since the pandemic began, in all settings (hospitals, care homes, private homes and other sites), as of ONS data to week 26 – ending 26th June 2020. This figure has not increased since the data for the week ending 19th June
  • As of the end of week 26 (week ending 26th June 2020), 92 people have died from or with Covid-19 in Stroud district. This figure has not increased since the last update (data is from ONS data on Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and place of death)
  • We have previously covered a map that has been created by the Office for National Statistics shows areas of England and Wales according to how many people have died with/from Covid-19. This provides a breakdown across areas of Stroud district (by “MSOA” or “Middle Super Output Area” – an ONS geographic unit).You can explore the full ONS data by MSOA and their interactive map, and read our summary and analysis from last week.

The PHE weekly surveillance report (30th January – 30th June 2020) shows:

  • 2,031 people have died in the South West – 21 people have died since the previous report (fewer than half the number who died in the previous period). This remains the lowest number of people of any region in England
  • This equates to a death rate of 36/100,000 people – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 89/100,000 in North West)
  • 12,447 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the South West, 235 more than in the last report. For the second week running this is a slightly higher increase than we covered last time (160, before that 148).
  • This equates to an incidence rate of 226/100,000 – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 578/100,000 in the North West).
  • A new surveillance report for the 1st July does not appear to be available, but should be published on the gov.uk website soon.

National level data

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics on deaths:

  • “The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 26 June 2020 (Week 26) was 10,267, which was lower than the five-year average (by 295 deaths), of which 651 deaths involved COVID-19.” (6.3%)
  • “In Week 26, the number of deaths registered was 3.4% below the five-year average (314 deaths fewer), this is the second consecutive week that deaths have been below the five-year average; the numbers of deaths in care homes and hospitals were also fewer than the five-year average (103 and 815 deaths lower respectively), while the number of deaths in private homes was 745 higher than the five-year average.”
  • Of the deaths registered in Week 26, 606 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 13 weeks, accounting for 6.7% of all deaths in England and Wales.
  • “Between Weeks 1 and 12, 138,916 deaths were registered, which was 4,822 fewer than the five-year average for these weeks. However, between Weeks 13 and 26, 196,690 deaths were registered which was 58,873 more than the five-year average. Week 26 showed a continuation of the decreasing trend in excess deaths involving COVID-19.”
  • Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available), the number of deaths up to 26 June was 335,578 which is 54,023 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 26 June 2020, 50,000 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; 14.9% of all deaths in England and Wales.”
Figure showing the number of deaths is now in line with the 5 year average, after a peak over double the 5 year average in mid-late april. Deaths involving Covid-19 are now at the level of influenza and pneumonia deaths per week, having been 5x higher during the peak.

You can read the full article and access the full data on which the article is based on the ONS website.

The Centre for Evidence-based Medicine reports that “There were 56 (43%) Hospital Trusts with no deaths reported in the last 7 days, 104 (79%) reported no deaths [from Covid-19] in the last 48 hours [to 5th July].”

The chart below shows a positive trend where the number of NHS Trusts reporting no deaths in a week is steadily increasing. This means that deaths from Covid-19 are happening in a smaller number of locations. Further data on the deaths by NHS Trust is available on the CEBM website.

Source: CEBM

Hospital admissions

The Centre for Evidence Based Medicine publish government data from “Hospital Acute Trusts data in England from major emergency departments that provide a consultant-led 24-hour service (a type 1 A&E)” with regard to admissions for Covid-19, up to 23rd June. This data used to form part of the daily Cabinet Office coronavirus briefings. We include the chart below as a record – and will include more up to date information as soon as it is availble.

Source: Centre for Evidence Based Research

According to the latest COVID Symptom Study app figures

  • 23,459 people [aged 20-69] are currently predicted to have symptomatic COVID in the UK” (8 of July, 5:00am BST). This number is down from over 350,000 people on 23 of April and over 100,000 people last week.
  • “This estimate is in line with the latest ONS Infection survey in which 25,000 people in England were estimated to be infected with COVID-19 during the two week period that goes from the 14th to the 27th of June.”
  • “The latest data modelling from the COVID Symptom Study app is now able to identify potential COVID hotspots in the UK, as well as showing daily cases in the population. The modelling highlights three key local authorities as potential new hotspots. As well as Leicester which is already back in lockdown, the data has highlighted Dudley and Wolverhampton as other areas in the Midlands that could be heading in the same direction.”
  • The COVID Symptom App team have “recalibrated the prediction model of symptomatic cases to better understand the current levels of COVID in your area and updated the interactive map in data page.” They say they “will be separately estimating the numbers of people with long duration symptoms and updating our website with these figures. We want to emphasise that there are lots of people who continue to have symptoms long after they are no longer infectious – this is an area of huge importance, and one that our researchers are very keen to understand better with your help… The COVID Symptom App team “observe that only 52.2% of people recover within 13 days.”

At the global level

The chart below from Johns Hopkins University (updated 6th July) shows deaths per 100,000 population. Countries at the top of this figure (the UK, US, Chile, Peru and Brazil) have the most deaths proportionally to their population, not necessarily the most deaths overall (although the US, UK and Brazil are the countries with the highest numbers of deaths as well). The UK rate is 66.64 deaths per 100,000 people, more than double the rate in any country bar the US (39.72). Read more on Mortality Analyses from Johns Hopkins University.

Source: Johns Hopkins University

Out analysis of data from the Johns Hopkins University tracker shows:

  • 11,839,095 confirmed cases – an increase of over 1.3 million cases during the week (1,352,073, the third week in a row with over 1 million cases confirmed, and with the number of cases confirmed each week continuing to rise).
  • 12.9% of global confirmed cases were confirmed in the past week (very similar to the 13.2% confirmed last week).
  • Over 500,000 people have now died – 544,415.
  • 32,869 people died in the past week (very slightly less but broadly the same as the number who died in the previous week). In other words, 6.4% of people who died with the virus, died in the last week.
  • 15 countries have over 200,000 cases (Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Chile join the list):
    • The USA – 2,999,098 cases, a weekly increase of 359,560 (13.6% – more than last week)
    • Brazil – 1,668,589 cases, a weekly increase of 266,548 (19.0% – a higher number but lower percentage increase than last week)
    • India – 742,417 cases – a weekly increase of 156,936 (26.8% – a higher number and similar percentage increase to last week)
    • Russia – 699,749 cases, a weekly increase of 46,270 (7.1% – a slightly lower increase than last week)
    • Peru – 309,278, increase of 24,065 (8.4% – the same as last week)
    • Chile – 301,019, increase of 18,976 (6.7% – lower than last week)
    • The UK – 287,880 cases. The methodology for reporting positive cases changed on 2 July 2020 to remove duplicates within and across pillars 1 and 2, to ensure that a person who tests positive is only counted once. Due to this change, 30,302 previously reported cases were removed from the UK total. This means the number of positive cases for the week was 4,021 (which represents 1.4% of total cases, less than last week)
    • Mexico – 268,008, increase of 41,919 (18.5% more than last week)
    • Spain – 252,130 cases, a weekly increase of 2,859 (1.1% – slightly higher than last week)
    • Iran – 245,688 cases – a weekly increase of 18,026 (7.9% – a higher increase than last week – there is little sign of the virus being under control in Iran)
    • Italy – 241,956 cases – a weekly increase of 1,378 (0.6% – very similar to last week)
    • Pakistan – 237,489, increase of 24,019 (11.3%, higher than last week)
    • Saudi Arabia – 217,108, increase of 26,285 (13.8%)
    • Turkey – 207,897, increase of 7,991 (4%)
    • France – 206,072, increase of 4,009 (2% – slightly higher than last week)
  • There are eleven countries where over 10,000 people have died where Covid-19 was involved (Peru and Russia join the list):
    • The USA – 131,480 people have died (4,055 people died in the past week, 3.2% of all the people to die in the USA, lower than last week)
    • Brazil – 66,741 (7,147, 12% –similar to last week)
    • The UK – 44,476 (661 people died in the past week, 1.5% increase, slightly lower than the previous week)
    • Italy – 34,899 (132, 0.4% – slightly higher than last week)
    • Mexico – 32,014 (4,245, 15.2% – lower than last week)
    • France – 29,936 (90, 0.3% – lower than last week)
    • Spain – 28,392 (37 – 0.1% – lower than last week)
    • India – 20,642 (3,242 – 18.6% of all people to die in India died in the past week)
    • Iran – 11,931 (1,114 – 10.3%).

It is important to say that different countries are testing and collecting data on deaths in different ways, making fair comparisons difficult. However, the Financial Times provides a useful visual narrative of the spread of Covid-19”, with charts showing comparisons between 20 countries, as well as global regional comparisons.

Our condolences

The idea behind this summary of statistics is to help people to understand the pandemic and to reduce the spread of the virus. We know that the blunt representation of numbers can prompt feelings of grief and pain, even while they cannot convey the individuality of the people affected or the emotional toll caused to their loved ones. We send our condolences to all affected.

Notes

We welcome your suggestions for inclusion of data in these summaries. Please submit posts to our Facebook group.

Please remember we have a (growing) list of resources to support your emotional and mental health during this time on our website. The following numbers may be useful:

  • Samaritans: 116 123
  • Domestic Violence Hotline: 0808 2000 247
  • Mind: 0300 123 3393
  • Age UK: 0800 169 6565
  • Childline: 0800 1111.
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Tuesday 7 July 2020

Key Updates

  • Coronavirus outbreak FAQs: what you can and can’t do since 4th July. The government has produced a Frequently Asked Questions webpage covering national guidance for England (excluding local lockdowns) It covers the following:

1) Gatherings, public spaces, and activities

2) Vulnerable groups, shielding, 70 year olds and over, and care homes

3) Going to work / Closed businesses / Safer spaces

4) Workers’ rights

5) Public Transport

6) Schools and Childcare

7) Borders / international visitors, and finally links to equivalent guidance for the 

8) Devolved administrations

You can read the full FAQ at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-outbreak-faqs-what-you-can-and-cant-do/coronavirus-outbreak-faqs-what-you-can-and-cant-do-after-4-july 

This link sets out guidance from the government that enables certain behaviour. Please bear in mind that there is debate about the timing and appropriateness of these measures (including from the Independent SAGE group of scientists), and some people in our community will not wish to take these risks.

  • James Bee shares “NHS England is launching a new service for people with ongoing health problems after having coronavirus.” BBC News reports that “Your Covid Recovery” will be an online portal for people in England to access tutorials, contact healthcare workers and track their progress:
  • https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53291925

Find their Facebook group at: https://www.facebook.com/groups/covidfamiliesforjusticeuk/ 

  • Emily Miles also shared about breastfeeding support. “Breastfeeding support is available virtually while local group MOBS is not running as usual….This is an important message! So many mums soldier on without seeking support because they assume pain is to be expected. Our breastfeeding counsellors are on hand to support you- just book a free slot using the link” https://gbsn.org.uk/gbsn-virtual-support-registration-form/ 
  • Sarah Dixon shared “a chart [which] offers a rough guide to risk levels which could be helpful in making choices in the coming weeks and months.” From Information is Beautiful 

Sarah Lancaster shared a masks tree in which you can pick up masks from a wide number of designated locations listed in the post.

  • We now have 4,376 members. We’ve shared 202 posts in the last month. Please invite your friends to grow this community. And please do introduce yourself and let us know anything you’d like to see in the group related to coronavirus and how we can work together to get through the pandemic and its impacts.
  • Please take a look at the Group Purpose and Guidelines if you haven’t read them recently.

Summary of key local, national and international news

We are now providing our main summary of local, national and international statistical data on a weekly basis rather than daily

Local

The drive through testing unit is open at Stratford Park Stroud https://www.stroudnewsandjournal.co.uk/news/18533676.drive-through-coronavirus-testing-unit-stroud-today/  – If you have symptoms you can book a test via: orlo.uk/book_test_kIJQN   

“On Wednesday, 24 June at the first ever virtual meeting of the county council, councillors unanimously agreed to a series of events, to recognise and celebrate the exceptional efforts of residents, the NHS, social care and wider public sector workers, and to establish lasting memorials so we never forget both the volunteers and the tragic loss of life within Gloucestershire communities.” Read more: https://www.gloucestershire.gov.uk/gloucestershire-county-council-news/news-june-2020/county-council-agrees-to-lasting-reminder-of-community-efforts-and-loss-of-life-from-covid-19/ 

National 

International

Notes

Please remember we have a (growing) list of resources to support your emotional and mental health during this time on our website. The following numbers may be useful:

  • Samaritans: 116 123
  • Domestic Violence Hotline: 0808 2000 247
  • Mind: 0300 123 3393
  • Age UK: 0800 169 6565
  • Childline: 0800 1111.
  • NHS 111

Thanks to everyone who helped create this update through our Facebook group. If you submit posts, we will often decline posting them to the discussion directly and instead hold them till the single daily summary – to try to reduce the number of posts in the feed and make it easier for people to follow the information. Please continue to submit posts to admins for this purpose with the appropriate flag: one of REQUEST / OFFER / UPDATE / QUESTION / COMMENTARY.


Wednesday 1st July 2020

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Each week we share a summary of local, national, and international data on the coronavirus/Covid-19 pandemic. We hope it is useful, please ask questions, or make suggestions for inclusion of data you have found useful, in our Facebook group.

Key points

  • There have been at least 576 deaths linked to coronavirus in Gloucestershire since the pandemic began. Until this week we had only shared data on deaths in hospitals. We now know that 350 in Gloucestershire have died outside of hospitals – in care homes, or their own houses – more than half of all the people who have died locally.
  • As of the end of week 25 (week ending 19 June 2020), 92 people have died from or with Covid-19 in Stroud district. This figure has not increased since the last update. This figure includes deaths in all locations as it is based on death certificates.
  • Of the “deaths registered by 19th June, 49,371 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; 15.1% of all deaths in England and Wales.” (ONS)
  • Over 10 million cases have now been confirmed globally – an increase of over 1 million cases during the week.
  • Over 500,000 people have died globally with the virus – 33,903 people died globally in the past week.
  • 12 countries have over 200,000 cases (3 more than last week), and over 10,000 people have died with Covid-19 in nine countries (1 more than last week)

Local statistics

  • The total number of confirmed cases of the virus is 1,394 in Gloucestershire – this is 12 higher than last week. However, it is not entirely clear whether these cases were confirmed in the past week or are historic confirmation that are only now being added to the total. For context, on 6th May 20 cases were confirmed on a single day – and 63 cases were confirmed on 11th April. It is important to state that this data covers only “pillar one” tests conducted in hospitals and not “pillar two” tests conducted at drive-through centres or via home-testing kits. This is frustrating, because in recent weeks as many as 90% of confirmed cases have come through pillar two tests (see below for more on this issue).
  • Government data shows that the most recent positive tests came on June 29, when two were positive in Gloucestershire – these were in Gloucester and Stroud” (Gloucestershire Live). This brings the total number of confirmed cases in Stroud since testing has been in place to over 200: 201. Again, these are cases confirmed through pillar one only, and will not include any positive tests from the new mobile testing unit in Stratford Park (which is staying there – see our post for details on booking a test if you have symptoms).
  • Gloucestershire County Council said in a tweet: “IMPORTANT: There is no spike in Covid-19 cases in the county. The data provided by @DHSCgovuk is NOT live data. It shows the number of cases in the county but NOT when they were detected. These are historical cases that happened to be added to the total yesterday.”
  • “There have been at least 576 deaths linked to coronavirus in Gloucestershire since the pandemic began. The number of deaths in NHS settings, such as hospitals, in the county is known to be at 226 and is updated daily by NHS England.” No-one has died in a Gloucestershire hospital in the past fortnight (potentially people have died in other settings but this data is not yet available) Until this week we had only shared data on deaths in hospitals. We now know that 350 in Gloucestershire have died outside of hospitals – in care homes, or their own houses – more than half of all the people who have died locally.
  • As of the end of week 25 (week ending 19 June 2020), 92 people have died from or with Covid-19 in Stroud district. This figure has not increased since the last update (data is from ONS data on Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and place of death)

The PHE weekly surveillance report (30th January – 24th June 2020) shows:

  • 2,010 people have died in the South West – 44 people have died since the previous report (very similar to the 48 who died in the previous period). This remains the lowest number of people of any region in England
  • This equates to a death rate of 36/100,000 people – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 87/100,000 in North West)
  • 12,447 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the South West, 160 more than in the last report. This is a slightly higher increase than we covered last time (148).
  • This equates to an incidence rate of 225/100,000 – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 569/100,000 in the North West).
  • A new surveillance report for the 1st July does not appear to be available, but should be published on the gov.uk website soon.

Other local data

National level data

The 24th June Public Health England COVID-19 epidemiology surveillance summary shows that as of that date there had been 238,911 confirmed cases of Covid-19 (including “Pillar one” tests in hospitals and “Pillar two” tests in drive-through test centres and home-testing kits).

The epidemiology surveillance summary contains an infographic with a helpful chart on cases of Covid-19 confirmed by “pillar 1” testing (in hospitals) and “pillar 2” (in drive-through test centres and via home-testing kits).

On the chart below, pillar 1 tests are shown in green and pillar two in yellow. You can see that to begin with cases were only confirmed through pillar 1 tests, by that more recently an increasing propotion have been through pillar 2 tests. The chart still shows a clear decline in cases – even if the rate of decline is slowing in the weeks for which full data is available. Further, as the chart notes “only data from more than five days ago can be considered complete. The data are shown by the week the specimen was taken all data may be subject to change over time”. This means that we not only need to be cautious about any testing data which only covers pillar 1 cases, but particularly cautious about new data.

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics on deaths:

  • “The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 19 June 2020 (Week 25) was 9,339, this was 637 lower than Week 24.”
  • “In Week 25, the number of deaths registered was 0.7% below the five-year average (65 deaths fewer), this is the first time weekly deaths have been below the five-year average since Week 11; the number of deaths in care homes and hospitals were also fewer than the five-year average (49 and 782 deaths lower respectively), while the number of deaths at home was 827 higher than the five-year average.”
  • Of the deaths registered in Week 25, 783 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)“, the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 12 weeks; accounting for 8.4% of all deaths in England and Wales.”
  • “Between Weeks 1 and 12, 138,916 deaths were registered, which was 4,822 less than the five-year average for these weeks. However, between Weeks 13 and 25, 187,711 deaths were registered, which was 59,187 more than the five-year average.”
  • “Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available), the number of deaths up to 19 June 2020 was 326,600, which is 54,338 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 19 June, 49,371 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; 15.1% of all deaths in England and Wales.”
  • “The number of deaths involving COVID-19 continued to decrease across all English regions, with four of the nine having fewer overall deaths than the five-year average in Week 25.”
  • “The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 19 June 2020 (Week 25) was 10,681, which was similar to the five-year average (8 deaths fewer); of the deaths registered in the UK in Week 25, 849 deaths involved COVID-19.” (7.9%)
Figure showing the number of deaths is now in line with the 5 year average, after a peak over double the 5 year average in mid-late april. Deaths involving Covid-19 are now at the level of influenza and pneumonia deaths per week, having been 5x higher during the peak.

You can read the full article and access the full data on which the article is based on the ONS website.

According to the latest COVID Symptom Study app figures

At the global level

Out analysis of data from the Johns Hopkins University tracker shows:

  • 10,487,022 confirmed cases – an increase of over 1 million cases during the week (1,221,001, the second week in a row with over 1 million cases confirmed, and with the number of cases confirmed each week continuing to rise).
  • 13.2% of global confirmed cases were confirmed in the past week (very similar to the 13.1% then confirmed last week).
  • Over 500,000 people have now died – 511,546.
  • 33,903 died in the past week (very slightly more but broadly the same as the number who died in the previous week). In other words, 7.1% of people who died with the virus, died in the last week.
  • 12 countries have over 200,000 cases (Mexico, Pakistan, and France join the list):
    • The USA – 2,636,538 cases, a weekly increase of 289,436 (12.3% – more than last week)
    • Brazil – 1,402,041 cases, a weekly increase of 256,135 (22.4% – a higher number but lower percentage increase than last week)
    • Russia – 653,479 cases, a weekly increase of 54,601 (9.1% – a slightly higher increase than last week)
    • India – 585,481 cases – a weekly increase of 129,298 (28.3% – a higher number and similar percentage increase to last week)
    • The UK – 314,161 cases, a weekly increase of 6,479 (2.1% – less than last week, but not by a huge amount)
    • Spain – 249,271 cases, a weekly increase of 2,519 (1% – the same as last week)
    • Italy – 240,578 cases – a weekly increase of 1,745 (0.7% – very similar to last week)
    • Iran – 227,662 cases – a weekly increase of 17,692 (8.4% – a higher increase than last week – there is little sign of the virus being under control in Iran)
  • There are nine countries where over 10,000 people have died where Covid-19 was involved (Iran joins the list):
    • The USA – 127,425 people have died (6,200 people died in the past week, 5.1% of all the people to die in the USA, a bit higher than last week)
    • Brazil – 59,594 (6,949, 13.2% – lower than last week)
    • The UK – 43,815 (804 people died in the past week, 1.9% increase, slightly lower than the previous week)
    • Italy – 34,767 (92, 0.3% – lower than last week)
    • France – 29,846 (123, 0.4% – lower than last week)
    • Spain – 28,355 (30 – 0.1% – much lower than last week)
    • Mexico – 27,769 (4,392, 18.8% – fewer people than last week)
    • India – 17,400 (2,924 – 20.2% of all people to die in India died in the past week)
    • Iran – 10,817 (we do not have a figure from last week to describe the weekly rise).

It is important to say that different countries are testing and collecting data on deaths in different ways, making fair comparisons difficult. However, the Financial Times “provides an up-to-date visual narrative of the spread of Covid-19”, with charts showing comparisons between 20 countries, as well as global regional comparisons. This has not been updated since last week when in showed:

  • There have been 65,700 “excess deaths” in the UK compared to the 5-year average (49% higher than average)
  • This is the highest number of excess deaths in any country other than the US (122,300 excess deaths, 25% higher than average)
  • It is the highest % increase on average of any country other than Peru (28,600 excess deaths, 141% increase)
  • There have been no excess deaths in Iceland, Israel, Norway, or South Africa

Our condolences

We send our condolences to everyone directly affected, and our best wishes to all readers during this traumatic time. We hope this summary of statistics – even where they are limited – can help people to understand the pandemic and to reduce the spread of the virus. But we know numbers are cannot hope to convey the individuality of the people affected or the emotional toll involved.

Notes

We welcome your suggestions for inclusion of data in these summaries. Please submit posts to our Facebook group.

Please remember we have a (growing) list of resources to support your emotional and mental health during this time on our website. The following numbers may be useful:

  • Samaritans: 116 123
  • Domestic Violence Hotline: 0808 2000 247
  • Mind: 0300 123 3393
  • Age UK: 0800 169 6565
  • Childline: 0800 1111.

Tuesday 30 June 2020

Summary for the past 6 days

Key Updates

  • As lockdown measures ease it is important to remember that it is still the case that anyone can catch coronavirus (Covid-19) and anyone can spread it.

We still need to adhere guidance to keep a safe distance, regularly wash hands, wear masks in enclosed spaces, and self-isolate and book a test if you have symptoms (new persistent cough, fever, loss of smell/taste).

You can currently be tested at Stratford Park in a mobile test centre – but need to book via http://NHS.uk/coronavirus https://www.facebook.com/groups/stroudcorona/permalink/294051095115985/

  • We now have 4,375 members. We’ve dealt with 908 posts in the last month.  Please invite your friends to grow this community. And please do introduce yourself and let us know anything you’d like to see in the group related to coronavirus and how we can work together to get through the pandemic and its impacts.
  • Please take a look at the Group Purpose and Guidelines if you haven’t read them recently.

Summary of key local, national and international news

We are now providing our main summary of local, national and international statistical data on a weekly basis rather than daily

Local

National 

International

Notes

Please remember we have a (growing) list of resources to support your emotional and mental health during this time on our website. The following numbers may be useful:

  • Samaritans: 116 123
  • Domestic Violence Hotline: 0808 2000 247
  • Mind: 0300 123 3393
  • Age UK: 0800 169 6565
  • Childline: 0800 1111.
  • NHS 111

Thanks to everyone who helped create this update through our Facebook group. If you submit posts, we will often decline posting them to the discussion directly and instead hold them till the single daily summary – to try to reduce the number of posts in the feed and make it easier for people to follow the information. Please continue to submit posts to admins for this purpose with the appropriate flag: one of REQUEST / OFFER / UPDATE / QUESTION / COMMENTARY.


Wednesday 24th June 2020

  • As of the end of week 24 (week ending 12 June 2020), 92 people who have died from or with Covid-19 in Stroud district (3 people died in weeks 23 and 24, ONS)
  • In Gloucestershire, only one case has been confirmed since last week, and no-one has died in a Gloucestershire hospital.
  • Of the deaths registered by 12 June 2020, 48,538 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; 15.3% of all deaths in England and Wales (ONS).
  • The Financial Times estimates that there have been 65,700 “excess deaths” in the UK compared to the 5-year average (49% higher than average)
  • Over 9 million cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed globally (9,266,021, Johns Hopkins University – JHU)
  • Confirmed cases globally have increased by over 1 million cases during the week (1,073,321) – for the second week running (JHU).

Today’s update includes our weekly summary of key local, national and international statistics.

Local statistics

  • The total number of confirmed cases of the virus is 1,382 in Gloucestershire – just 1 higher than last week. A case was confirmed on 18th June. 8 cases have been confirmed since Tuesday 2nd June, and 20 in the past month. For context, on 6th May 20 cases were confirmed on a single day – and 63 cases were confirmed on 11th April.
  • 226 people from Gloucestershire have died in hospitals – no-one has died in a Gloucestershire hospital in the past week (potentially people have died in other settings but this data is not yet available.)
  • As of the end of week 24 (week ending 12 June 2020), 92 people who have died from or with Covid-19 in Stroud district (3 people died in weeks 23 and 24, ONS data on Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and place of death)
Daily confirmed cases in Gloucestershire (Sky News)

The PHE weekly surveillance report (30th January – 17th June 2020) shows:

  • 1,966 people have died in the South West – 48 more than was the case in the previous report. This is the lowest number of people of any region in England
  • This equates to a death rate of 35/100,000 people – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 84/100,000 in both the North West and North East)
  • 12,447 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the South West, 146 more than in the last report.
  • This equates to an incidence rate of 222/100,000 – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 556/100,000 in the North East).
  • A new surveillance report for the 24th June does not appear to be available, but should be published on the gov.uk website soon.

Other local data

  • Last week we covered a map that has been created by the Office for National Statistics shows areas of England and Wales according to how many people have died with/from Covid-19. This provides a breakdown across areas of Stroud district (by “MSOA” or “Middle Super Output Area” – an ONS geographic unit).You can explore the full ONS data by MSOA and their interactive map, and read our summary and analysis from last week.
  • Gloucestershire Hospitals Trust have not issued any further public information on safe discharge of patients (as of 18th May they had safely discharged 441 patients, and we know the figure is at least a little higher than this now).
  • The Office for National Statistics on “Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and health board” records three new death registrations and occurences. As of the end of week 24 (week ending 12 June 2020), 92 people who have died from or with Covid-19 in Stroud district.
  • There have been 22 death occurences and 24 registrations in the week, so the 89 people who have died with or from Covid-19 are now 14.7% of all 604 death occurrences, and 13.8% of all 644 death registrations in the district this year – by our estimates.

National level data

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics on deaths:

  • “The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 12 June 2020 (Week 24) was 9,976; this was 733 lower than Week 23 and 5.9% (559 deaths) higher than the five-year average.”
  • Of the deaths registered in Week 24, 1,114 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 11 weeks; accounting for 11.2% of all deaths in England and Wales.
  • “Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available), the number of deaths up to 12 June was 317,260 which is 54,402 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 12 June 2020, 48,538 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; 15.3% of all deaths in England and Wales.”
  • “between Weeks 13 and 24, 178,372 deaths were registered which was 59,252 more than the five-year average.”
  • “In Week 24, the proportion of deaths occurring in care homes decreased to 21.4% while deaths involving COVID-19 as a percentage of all deaths in care homes decreased to 17.3%.”
  • “In Week 24, the number of deaths in care homes was 199 deaths higher than the five-year average, while in hospitals the number of deaths was 503 fewer than the five-year average; the total number of excess deaths involving COVID-19 continued to decrease.”
  • “The number of deaths involving COVID-19 continued to decrease across all English regions but only the North East had fewer overall deaths than the five-year average in Week 24.”
  • “Of all deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to Week 24, 63.6% occurred in hospital with the remainder mainly occurring in care homes (29.7%), private homes (4.5%) and hospices (1.4%).”
  • The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 12 June 2020 (Week 24) was 11,289 of which 1,205 deaths involved COVID-19.” (10.7%)

You can read the full article and access the full data on which the article is based on the ONS website.

Daily additional COVID-19 associated UK deaths by date reported (Gov.uk)
Daily number of lab-confirmed cases in England by specimen date (Gov.uk)

According to the latest COVID Symptom Study app figures

  • 134,260 people [aged 20-69] are currently predicted to have symptomatic COVID in the UK” (23 of June, 5:00am BST). This number is down from over 350,000 people on 23 of April and over 250,000 on 21st May.
  • “latest incidence figures suggest that there are currently 3,612 daily new cases of COVID in the UK on average over the two weeks up to 13 June 2020 (excluding care homes). These incidence figures were based on 17,984 swab tests from 31 May to 13 June. This suggests that daily new infection rates across the UK have dropped by over a quarter (26%) from last week’s figure.”
  • This includes 12-58 daily new cases per million people in the South West.
  • R for the South West is estimated at 0.9 (0.7-1.1). Along with the South East and London this is the highest estimated rate for a region. R is estimated to be lowest in Wales (0.5, 0.1-0.9).

Read the full analysis from the COVID-19 Symptom Study app (19th June) (this app has been developed by health science company ZOE and it is endorsed by the Welsh Government, NHS Wales, the Scottish Government and NHS Scotland, and data is being analysed in collaboration with King’s College London researchers.

Day by day evolution of the infection across the UK (Covid Symptom Study)

At the global level

Out analysis of data from the Johns Hopkins University tracker shows:

  • 9,266,021 confirmed cases – an increase of over 1 million cases during the week (1,073,321, the second week in a row with over 1 million cases confirmed).
  • 13.1% of global confirmed cases were confirmed in the past week.
  • 477,643 people have now died – meaning 33,532 died in the past week (very slightly less but broadly the same as the number who died in the previous week). In other words, 7.6% of people who died with the virus, died in the last week.
  • 9 countries have over 200,000 cases (Iran joins the list):
    • The USA – 2,347,102 cases, a weekly increase of 209,371 (9.8% – more than last week)
    • Brazil – 1,145,906 cases, a weekly increase of 222,717 (24.1% – a higher number but lower percentage increase than last week)
    • Russia – 598,878 cases, a weekly increase of 46,329 (8.4% – a lower increase than last week)
    • India – 456,183 cases – a weekly increase of 102,118 (28.8% – a higher number and similar percentage increase to last week)
    • The UK – 307,682 cases, a weekly increase of 8,082 (2.7% – less than last week, but not by much)
    • Spain – 246,752 cases, a weekly increase of 2,422 (1% – the same as last week)
    • Italy – 238,833 cases – a weekly increase of 1,333 (0.6% – very similar to last week)
    • Iran – 209,970 cases – a weekly increase of 14,919 (7.6% – there has been some discussion that this represents a “second wave” in Iran)
  • There are eight countries where over 10,000 people have died where Covid-19 was involved:
    • The USA – 121,225 people have died (4,262 people died in the past week, 3.6% of all the people to die in the USA, a little low than last week)
    • Brazil – 52,645 (7,404, 16.4% – lower than last week)
    • The UK – 43,011 (957 people died in the past week, 2.3% increase, slightly lower than the previous week)
    • Italy – 34,675 (270, 0.6% – lower than last week)
    • France – 29,723 (173, 0.6% – lower than last week)
    • Spain – 28,325 (1,189 – 4.4% – a sizeable change, we think related to reporting that saw no deaths added last week)
    • Mexico – 23,377 (5,067, 27.7% – more people than last week)
    • Inda – 14,476 (2,573 – 21.6% of all people to die in India died in the past week)

It is important to say that different countries are testing and collecting data on deaths in different ways, making fair comparisons difficult. However, the Financial Times “provides an up-to-date visual narrative of the spread of Covid-19”, with charts showing comparisons between 20 countries, as well as global regional comparisons. This currently shows:

  • There have been 65,700 “excess deaths” in the UK compared to the 5-year average (49% higher than average)
  • This is the highest number of excess deaths in any country other than the US (122,300 excess deaths, 25% higher than average)
  • It is the highest % increase on average of any country other than Peru (28,600 excess deaths, 141% increase)
  • There have been no excess deaths in Iceland, Israel, Norway, or South Africa

Our condolences

It is always worth saying that while the statistics above are helpful to our understanding of the pandemic, they are not an effective way to communicate the humanity of the people affected or the emotional toll involved. We send our condolences to everyone directly affected, and our best wishes to all readers during this traumatic time.

Notes

Please remember we have a (growing) list of resources to support your emotional and mental health during this time on our website. The following numbers may be useful:

  • Samaritans: 116 123
  • Domestic Violence Hotline: 0808 2000 247
  • Mind: 0300 123 3393
  • Age UK: 0800 169 6565
  • Childline: 0800 1111.