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Vaccination in Stroud district and Gloucestershire

Information and data about the Covid-19 vaccines and their rollout locally (with some national and international context)

This page will be updated monthly (latest update 5th September). It includes:

  1. Key information about the vaccine rollout and where you can get information/ask questions
  2. Data on the vaccine rollout in Gloucestershire
  3. Data on vaccination takeup in different parts of Stroud district
  4. Information regarding the impact and effectiveness of vaccination locally and nationally
  5. International context on vaccination for Covid-19

Key information:

Vaccinations in Gloucestershire

Data from the NHS on vaccinations shows that:

  • Across Gloucestershire, 87% of people 16+, or 76% of the total population have received at least one dose. Around 70% of the population are fully vaccinated (up from 64% last month). Those who are unvaccinated are largely children under the age of 16 who in most cases are not eligible.
  • Across Stroud district, 89% of people 16+ (76% of the population) have received at least one dose. Around 71% of the population are fully vaccinated (up from 63% last month). See more detail on areas within Stroud district below.
  • In England as a whole 64% of the population are now estimated to be fully vaccinated and a further 7% have had one dose (leaving 28% unvaccinated – many of whom are not eligible due to being under 12/under 16 without a health condition leading to greater risk).
  • Rates locally and nationally are much higher than for the world as a whole – where 28% are fully vaccinated (though this has nearly doubled since last month when it was 15%) and less than half have received at least one dose. In many countries, under 5% of the population has received at least one dose. In low income countries, only 1.8% of people have received at least one dose.

The chart below shows how 2nd doses are keeping pace with the 1st dose rollout in Gloucestershire.

Stroud district in more detail

The chart below shows how the population of Stroud district breaks down in terms of age bands, and in terms of people who have had first and second doses of Covid-19 vaccines.

Across Stroud district, an estimated 10,455 people aged 18 and over have not taken up the offer of vaccination. This includes 2,960 people aged over 50 (5% of those in that age bracket) and 7,495 people aged 18-49 (17% of people in that age bracket). To summarise the age bands shown:

  • 18-29: 78% first dose, 50% second
  • 30-39: 83% first dose, 72% second
  • 40-49: 90% first dose, 86% second
  • 50-59: 93% first dose, 92% second
  • 60-69: 95% first dose, 93% second
  • 70+: 96.3% first dose, 95.6% second

Rates of takeup vary around the district, as the following charts show. The first chart shows the proportion of the population of different areas that is fully vaccinated or has had a single dose. However, the number of people living in each area is different, and the proportion of people that are unvaccinated related to the proportion aged under 16 that are largely not eligible, not only levels of take-up (as explored in further charts below). Areas are ranked by the proportion of the population to be vaccinated, described below the chart:

Proportion of population to have received at least one Covid-19 dose

  • 90%: Frampton, Whitminster & Eastington
  • 82%: Leonard Stanley & Uley
  • 81%: Painswick, Bisley & Eastcombe; Chalford & Bussage; Minchinhampton & Amberley
  • 80%: Cam; Wotton-under-Edge and Kingswood
  • 79%: Berkeley & Sharpness
  • 78%: Rodborough & Thrupp
  • 76%: Nailsworth; Stonehouse
  • 75%: Upton St Leonards & Hardwicke
  • 74%: Ebley & Randwick
  • 73%: Dursley
  • 71%: Stroud Town

The chart below shows the numbers of people in each area that have been fully vaccinated, have only received one dose so far, or that have not been vaccinated. You can see that the population for each area varies substantially – with Ebley & Randwick containing about 12,000 people, compared to around 6,000 in Chalford and Bussage. In the chart, the areas are ranked by the highest number of people to be fully vaccinated. The raw number of people to have been vaccinated living in an area is highest in Ebley & Randwick (8,740) and Stroud Town (8,293), and lowest in Nailsworth (5,035) and Chalford & Bussage (5,055).

[To be added in the next few days – number / proportion of eligible people per area of the Stroud district]

Evidence of impact – local / national

In the chart below from @JoeGreenHealth the solid blue bars represent Covid patients in Gloucestershire hospital beds, while “the blue dotted line represents the jaw dropping numbers @gloshospitals would have seen without vaccination!” (if the case:beds ratio had been the same as in the previous wave) – up to around 300 rather than the 22 as of the end of July 2021 when this chart was published.

Source: Dave Windsor, Intensive Care Consultant at Gloucester Royal

A previous data analysis exercise by Gloucestershire Hospitals is also shown below. It shows that in Jul 2021, 65% of the population were double vaccinated, and 15% unvaccinated. However, of Covid-19 admissions, just 15% were double vaccinated, while unvaccinated people made up 65% of Covid-19 related admissions.

Source: Dave Windsor, Intensive Care Consultant at Gloucester Royal

For protection against the Delta variant which is dominant in the UK, the Vaccine Effectiveness Expert Panel produces a table for the government including data from Public Health England and other studies. These estimates are based on the proportion of people protected by the vaccine, compared to unvaccinated people (for example, 80% protection means that for every 100 unvaccinated people who are admitted to hospital, only 20 vaccinated people with otherwise similar characteristics – eg. age and health conditions – would be, while the other 80 would be protected. By extreme contrast, if a vaccine was not effective at all, it would provide 0% protection, and 100 vaccinated people would be admitted to hospital over the same time period 100 unvaccinated people of similar age and prior health would be).

As of 16th July, they find with high confidence (consistent and comprehensive evidence from studies) that:

  • Pfizer-BioNTech after one dose provides 80% protection against hospitalisation (range of likely result in whole population rather than study data 75-85%), rising to 95% after two doses (range of likely result 80-99%)
  • Pfizer-BioNTech after one dose provides 80% protection against mortality/death (range of likely result in whole population rather than study data 75-85%), rising to 95% after two doses (range of likely result 80-99%)
  • Pfizer-BioNTech after one dose provides 55% protection against symptomatic infection (range of likely result in whole population rather than study data 50-65%), rising to 85% after two doses (range of likely result 80-90%)
  • Oxford/AstraZeneca after one dose provides 45% protection against symptomatic infection (range of likely result in population rather than study data between 40-55%)

They also have medium confidence (evidence is emerging but may be inconsistent and so requires further analysis) that:

  • Oxford/AstraZeneca after one dose provides 80% protection against hospitalisation (range of likely result in population rather than study data between 75-85%)
  • Oxford/AstraZeneca after one dose provides 70% protection against symptomatic infection (range of likely result in population rather than study data between 60-75%)

Data on protection against infection and transmission reduction isn’t available for Delta yet, but a further table is shown below for the Alpha variant (dominant in the UK over winter 2020/21) – you can see that there have been some changes, but we can be optimistic broadly similar data will come in for Delta.

For the Alpha variant, the Vaccine Effectiveness Expert Panel have low confidence – meaning there is little evidence available and results are inconclusive at present, that:

  • Oxford/AstraZeneca might provide around 60% protection against infection, and 40% reduction in transmission after one dose, and 80% protection against infection after two doses
  • Pfizer-BioNTech might provide around 60% protection against infection (medium rather than low confidence), and 45% reduction in transmission after one dose, and 85% protection against infection after two doses

International context

Globally, vaccine doses have largely been administed in countries with higher income levels.

In terms of vaccination, the UK has a very high proportion who have received at least one dose (71% of population), though this is now lower than some similar countries (Spain, Canada, France and Italy) – in part because of wider extension of vaccination in those countries to those aged 12-15. The UK’s rate for full vaccination (63%) is also very high in terms of global comparisons. Across Africa, just 5.2% of the population have received any vaccination, and only 2.3% are fully vaccinated.

There is a real need to plan to improve global vaccination. You can Donate to treat, vaccinate and support people worldwide – which a few members of our Facebook group have reported doing to mark getting their own vaccination.

If you would like to ask any questions about vaccinations in terms of their availability, effects/side-effects, or local or international data, please ask in our Facebook group.

One reply on “Vaccination in Stroud district and Gloucestershire”

[…] Across the UK, the number of people to have tested positive in the past 7 days is 203,604 – 9,376 more people testing positive in the week compared to the previous week (a 4.8% increase). The numbers of people dying being admitted to hospital (5,476 in the past 7 days, up 111 / 2.1%) are also rising, albeit slowly. In terms of adults, across the UK 77% have been fully vaccinated in 9 in 10 (89.5%) have received at least one dose. In England, 60% of the total population are now estimated to be fully vaccinated and a further 10% have had one dose (leaving 30% unvaccinated – many of whom are not eligible due to being under 16). For local vaccination data see our new monthly vaccination update. […]