Wednesday 29th July data update

Each week we share a summary of local, national, and international data on the coronavirus/Covid-19 pandemic. We hope it is useful, please ask questions, or make suggestions for inclusion of data you have found useful, in our Facebook group.

Key points

  • As of 27th July a total of 1,869 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in Gloucestershire. 19 cases have been added to this total since we reported on this data last week. 47 cases have been confirmed in July, compared to 51 in June.
  • As of 27th July there have been 264 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in Stroud. This number is six higher than we reported last week, and the last case to be confirmed was from a specimen on the 26th July. There have been seven confirmed cases in Stroud district this month so far – more than were confirmed in June (six).
  • The Office for National Statistics has updated their map of where people have died with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate – we cover the data by areas of Stroud district below.
  • Both the ONS and the Covid Symptom Study app continue to estimate 28-29,000 symptomaticcases. It is concerning that estimates are not falling – they have been broadly similar on a daily basis during July, having been falling sharply in late June.
  • Over 300,000 cases have now been confirmed in the UK – 302,295 cases, a weekly increase of 4,906 (1.6%). This is a slightly higher number and percentage than last week (4,458, 1.5%), but still lower than the week before. There is a broadly static rather than downward trend. There has not yet been a week with fewer than 4,000 cases since the peak.
  • Over 16.5 million confirmed cases have been confirmed globally (16,762,605) – an increase of over 1.8 million cases during the week (1,802,469, the sixth week in a row with over 1 million cases confirmed, and with the number of cases confirmed each week continuing to rise).

Local statistics

Confirmed cases in Stroud and Gloucestershire

  • As of 22nd July a total of 1,869 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in Gloucestershire. 19 cases have been added to this total since we reported on this data last week (this data and that below is based on analysis of spreadsheet data downloaded from the government’s coronavirus data dashboard. The dashboard provides the totals and current rates, but not the local daily/weekly confirmed numbers – but these are available via the spreadsheets). 47 cases have been confirmed in July, compared to 51 in June.
  • Gloucestershire has a lab-confirmed cases rate of 295 cases per 100,000 people. This means that of 149 “Upper Tier local Authorities” (County Councils, for example), Gloucestershire has the 23rd lowest rate (or, alternatively, the 127th highest). The highest rate is in Leicester (1,361.1) and the lowest rate is in North East Lincolnshire (134.5). In plain language: after adjusting for population, fewer people have been confirmed to have the virus in Gloucestershire than in most parts of the country. There are only 22 equivalent local authorities where the rate is lower. It is important to note that “confirmed” cases may not reflect the true number of people who have had the virus – but nonetheless, the difference between authorities is more likely to be because of different prevalence of the virus than differences in testing (given access to testing is largely similar around England).
  • As of 27th July there have been 264 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in Stroud. This number is six higher than we reported last week, and the last case to be confirmed was from a specimen on the 26th July. There have been seven confirmed cases in Stroud district this month so far – more than were confirmed in June (six). However, the presence of a mobile testing site in Stratford Park has likely led to increased testing, meaning the higher number does not necessarily mean there are more cases than there were.
  • Stroud has a confirmed cases rate of 221.8 per 100,000 people. There are 315 “Lower Tier Local Authorities” of which Stroud District Council is one. Of these, Stroud has the 27th lowest rate (alternatively, the 289th highest). For comparison, the highest rate is in Leicester (1,361.1 confirmed cases per 100,000 people – some “Unitary authorities” are on both Lower and Upper Tier lists – because they are neither/both lower and upper tier) and the lowest rate is in Torridge (77.8).
  • The chart below shows confirmed cases in Gloucestershire by week. We are currently half-way through week 31 (in which 6 cases have been confirmed), but as the week is not complete we have left this off the chart (also as confirmations are added for the date of the specimen and therefore are only ‘up to date’ a few days after the end of a week). Confirmed case numbers have been broadly static for 7 weeks (since week 24, the 12th June). The local confirmation trend becoming static is similar to the national estimate for symptomatic cases becoming static as we entered July (see below).
Source: SCCR analysis of data from the government Coronarvirus Dashboard

People who have died because of Covid-19 in Stroud and Gloucestershire

The Office for National Statistics has updated their map of where people have died with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate.

We provide the data for Stroud district below. The data now includes deaths from June, as well as March, April and May. You can explore the interactive map of England and Wales – which of course covers the whole of Gloucestershire.

Three more people have been registered as having died with Covid-19 mentioned on their death certifcate (the total for the district is now 92 rather than 89 people) since we last shared this map. We include all the information, including those for areas where there has been no change, below:

  1. The total numbers per “Middle Super Output Areas” or MSOAs (an ONS geographical unit that covers settlements and their surroundings)
  2. The number of people who have died per 10,000 people living in the area (only Stroud Town and Ebley and Randwick have more than 10,000 residents – but this is the comparison rate that makes most sense).
  3. The areas ranked by Covid-19 deaths as a proportion of the average number of people who died between 2014-2018.

For the Stroud district, in alphabetical order:

  • Berkeley and Sharpness: 9 people have died (no change)
  • Cam: 4 people (no change)
  • Chalford and Bussage: 4 people (1 more person has died)
  • Dursley: 4 people (no change)
  • Ebley and Randwick: 11 people (no change)
  • Frampton, Whitminster and Eastington: 5 people (no change)
  • Leonard Stanley and Uley: 5 people (no change)
  • Minchinhampton and Amberey: 1 person (no change)
  • Nailsworth: 10 people (no change)
  • Painswick, Bisley and Eastcombe: 4 people (no change)
  • Rodborough and Thrupp: 4 people (no change)
  • Stonehouse: 12 people (2 more people have died)
  • Stroud Town: 4 people (no change)
  • Upton St Leonards and Hardwicke: 11 people (no change)
  • Wotton-under-Edge and Kingswood: 4 people (no change)

Death rates per 10,000 people, ranked

  • Nailsworth: 15.3
  • Stonehouse: 14.8
  • Berkeley and Sharpness: 14.0
  • Upton St Leonards and Hardwicke: 11.3
  • Ebley and Randwick: 9.3
  • Leonard Stanley and Uley: 7.4
  • Frampton, Whitminster and Eastington: 7.4
  • Chalford and Bussage: 6.3
  • Painswick, Bisley and Eastcombe: 6.0
  • Rodborough and Thrupp 5.8
  • Dursley: 5.3
  • Cam: 4.7
  • Wotton-under-Edge and Kingswood: 4.6
  • Stroud Town: 3.4
  • Minchinhampton and Amberley: 1.5

(these calculations are based on the ONS 2018 mid-year population data – but any mistakes are ours)

People who died with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate as a proportion of the 5 year average number of people to die in the area:

  • Upton St Leonards and Harwicke: 16.2%
  • Nailsworth: 14.9%
  • Stonehouse: 13.6%
  • Berkeley and Sharpness: 11.3%
  • Chalford and Bussage: 9.4%
  • Rodborough and Thrupp: 8.1%
  • Ebley and Randwick: 8.0%
  • Leonard Stanley: 7.1%
  • Cam: 4.9%
  • Dursley: 4.7%
  • Frampton, Whitminster and Eastington: 4.6%
  • Painswick, Bisley and Eastcombe: 4.6%
  • Stroud Town: 4.2%
  • Wotton-under-Edge and Kingswood: 4.1%
  • Minchinhampton and Amberley: 1.2%

(these calculations are based on the ONS deaths data from 2014-2018 – again any errors are ours).

The PHE weekly surveillance report (30th January – 21st July 2020) shows:

  • 2,104 people have died in the South West – 18 people have died since the previous report (the lowest weekly number for some weeks). This remains the lowest total number of people to died with the virus of any region in England. Importantly, the number here is “the total number of people who have died in England [or in this case, the South West] and had tested positive for COVID-19 since 30th January”. There are queries about this methodology – which suggests no-one can recover from Covid-19 (Centre for Evidence Based Medicine) and die of another cause – and people who died from Covid-19 but without a test are not included. However, this only affects the PHE data – the ONS data covered below uses a different method, covering death certificates – reporting “excess deaths” above average, and cases where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate.
  • This equates to a death rate of 38/100,000 people – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 93/100,000 in the North West)
  • 12,978 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the South West, 99 more than in the last report. This is the lowest weekly total for over 5 weeks, and it is the second week where the number of confirmed cases has fallen. Bear in mind though that the data only covers the period to 21st July.
  • This equates to an incidence rate of 232/100,000 – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 609/100,000 in the North West).
  • A new surveillance report will be published on the gov.uk website soon (probably the 31st July).

National level data

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics on deaths:

  • “The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 17 July 2020 (Week 29) was 8,823, this was 133 deaths more than Week 28.”
  • “In Week 29, the number of deaths registered was 3.0% below the five-year average (270 deaths fewer), this is the fifth consecutive week that deaths have been below the five-year average”
  • Of the deaths registered in Week 29, 295 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 17 weeks and a 19.4% decrease compared with Week 28 (366 deaths), accounting for 3.3% of all deaths in England and Wales.
  • “Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available), the number of deaths up to 17 July was 362,229, which is 53,148 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 17 July 2020, 51,264 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate, 14.2% of all deaths in England and Wales.”
  • “the number of deaths for England was 340,267, which is 51,454 (17.8%) more than the five-year average. Of these, 48,692 deaths (14.3%) mentioned COVID-19.”
Source: ONS

You can read the full article and access the full data on which the article is based on the ONS website.

Prevalence and Incidence – ONS and COVID Symptom Study app

Prevalence is the total number of estimated cases at any given time, whereas incidence is the estimated number of daily new cases.

Incidence estimates are higher than the the government’s number of “lab confirmed cases” because they are designed to estimate cases that have not been confirmed through testing

The COVID app figures:

  • COVID Symptom Study app incidence: 1,884 daily new cases (this is lower than last week)
  • COVID Symptom Study app prevalence: 29,175 symptomatic COVID. As the chart below shows, while this number declined rapidly from around 90,000 symptomatic cases on 11th June, it has been broadly static at around 25-30,000 symptomatic cases for every day in July – rising slowly if showing any directional trend.
Source: COVID Symptom Study App estimates

You will notice that the two different methods give quite similar results – 1,900-2,800 new daily cases, and 28,000-29,000 symptomatic cases. Both are within the ‘confidence interval’ for each other’s estimates (in other words, when the estimate is made, there is a window given alongside the specific estimate for where the true number might plausibly be). Read about the difference in methodology that leads to these different estimates on the COVID Symptom Study page, “What do all the different COVID figures mean and how do they compare?” – or follow the links above for further details on each estimate.

Hospital admissions

The Centre for Evidence Based Medicine (CEBM) publish government data from “Hospital Acute Trusts data in England from major emergency departments that provide a consultant-led 24-hour service (a type 1 A&E)” with regard to admissions for Covid-19, up to 27th July. This data used to form part of the daily Cabinet Office coronavirus briefings. On the 27th July there were 14 hospital admissions – compared to a peak of 3,099 on the 31st March, and 79 on the 20th July (ie, the previous week). This clear downward trend is a good sign.

Source: CEBM

At the global level

Out analysis of data from the Johns Hopkins University tracker shows:

  • Over 16.5 million confirmed cases (16,762,605) – an increase of over 1.8 million cases during the week (1,802,469, the sixth week in a row with over 1 million cases confirmed, and with the number of cases confirmed each week continuing to rise).
  • 12.0% of global confirmed cases were confirmed in the past week (this percentage increase is at least falling slowly).
  • Nearly 650,000 people have now died – 646,812.
  • 30,043 people died in the past week (around 8,000 fewer than the number who died in the previous week). In other words, 4.9% of people who died with the virus, died in the last week. While this is still a very high number, it is the lowest number of people to die in a week since starting our weekly updates on the 12th May.
  • 19 countries have over 200,000 cases (no new countries join the list), and three have over 1 million confirmed cases:
    • The USA now has over 4 million confirmed cases – 4,352,304 cases, a weekly increase of 450,169 (11.5% – a lower increase than last week, but still larger in terms of number of cases than the previous week)
    • Brazil – 2,483,191 cases, a weekly increase of 323,567 (15.0% – a higher number and percentage after two weeks of falls)
    • India – 1,531,669 – a weekly increase of 338,591 (28.4% – higher than last week)
    • Russia – 827,455, a weekly increase of 39,609 (5.0% – a lower increase than the previous week, but very similar to the week before that)
    • Mexico – 402,697, increase of 46,442 (13.0% more confirmed cases but a slightly lower percentage increase than last week for the third week running – Mexico appears to be approaching a peak/plateau)
    • Peru – 395,005, increase of 32,918 (9.1% – higher than last week)
    • Chile – 349,800, increase of 15,117 (4.5% – marginally lower than last week, meaning three weeks of declining weekly numbers)
    • The UK – 302,295 cases, increase of 4,906 (1.6%). This is a slightly higher number and percentage than last week (4,458, 1.5%), but still lower than the week before. There is a broadly static rather than downward trend. There has not yet been a week with fewer than 4,000 cases since the peak.
    • Iran – 298,909 cases – a weekly increase of 20,082 (7.2% –higher than last week)
    • Spain – 280,610, increase of 14,416 (5.4%). This is a considerable increase for the third week in a row – just 2,034 cases were confirmed in the week ending 9th June (a lower number than the UK has achieved for any week since peak). Confirmed cases have been increasing for 7 weeks in a row.
    • Pakistan – 276,288, increase of 8,860 (3.3%, lower than last week for the third week in a row, spread of the virus is coming under control in the country)
    • Saudi Arabia – 270,831, increase of 15,006 (5.9% – lower than last week for at least the third week in a row)
    • Italy – 246,488 cases – a weekly increase of 1,736 (0.7% – very similar to last week, though there have been marginally higher confirmed cases numbers in Italy for three weeks running)
    • Turkey – 227,982, increase of 6,482 (2.9% – lower than last week for the third week running)
    • France – 221,077, increase of 6,470 (3.0% – higher than last week, for the second week running, and the highest weekly total since June)
    • Colombia – 267,385, increase of 56,347 (26.7% -very similar and high confirmed case numbers to last week, but at least a plateau from a rapidly accelerating trend)
    • Bangladesh – 232,194, increased of 21,684 (10.3 – broadly similar to last week)
  • There are eleven countries where over 10,000 people have died where Covid-19 was involved (no new countries have passed that grim threshold this week):
    • The USA – nearly 150,000 people haved died – 149,260 (7,192 people died in the past week, a 5.1% increase. This is a higher number and rate of increase to last week. There is little sign the virus is under control in the USA)
    • Brazil – 88,539 (7,052, 8.7% – marginally lower than last week. The number of people dying each week has been roughly the same for four weeks running)
    • The UK – 45,963 (456 people died in the past week, a 1% increase, very similar to week.)
    • Mexico – 44,876 (4,476, 11.1% – the highest number for four weeks)
    • Italy – 35,123 (50, 0.1% – lower than last week)
    • France – 30,226 (58, 0.2% – lower than last week)
    • India – 34,193 (5,461 – 19.0% – higher than last week)
    • Spain – 28,436 (12 – 0.04% – lower than last week)
    • Iran – 16,343 (1,709 – 11.7% – more than last week for the third week running)
    • Peru – 18,612 (5,033, 37.1% – a very high increase – potentially a statistical correction)
    • Russia – 13,642 (920, 7.2% – lower than last week).

It is important to say that different countries are testing and collecting data on deaths in different ways, making fair comparisons difficult. However, the Financial Times provides a useful visual narrative of the spread of Covid-19”, with charts showing comparisons between 20 countries on the best available testing measure – “excess deaths”, as well as global regional comparisons.

As of the FT’s data (13th July), the “UK has one of the highest excess death rates among countries producing comparable data”. The UK has the second highest total number of excess deaths, the fourth highest rate of excess deaths per million people, and the fifth highest total excess deaths relative to the historical average. The FT say “Adjusting for population size, the hardest hit countries are Peru and Ecuador, each of which have seen more than 1,000 excess deaths per million inhabitants. The two Latin American countries have the highest excess percentage — excess deaths expressed as a share of normal deaths for the same period.”

Source: Financial Times. This chart has not been updated this week – we will replace it as soon as it is updated.

Our condolences

The idea behind this summary of statistics is to help people to understand the pandemic and to reduce the spread of the virus. We know that the blunt representation of numbers can prompt feelings of grief and pain, even while they cannot convey the individuality of the people affected or the emotional toll caused to their loved ones. We send our condolences to all affected.

Notes

We welcome your suggestions for inclusion of data in these summaries. Please submit posts to our Facebook group.

Please remember we have a (growing) list of resources to support your emotional and mental health during this time on our website. The following numbers may be useful:

  • Samaritans: 116 123
  • Domestic Violence Hotline: 0808 2000 247
  • Mind: 0300 123 3393
  • Age UK: 0800 169 6565
  • Childline: 0800 1111.
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