Data update Wednesday 22nd July

Each week we share a summary of local, national, and international data on the coronavirus/Covid-19 pandemic. We hope it is useful, please ask questions, or make suggestions for inclusion of data you have found useful, in our Facebook group.

Key points

  • As of 22nd July a total of 1,850 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in Gloucestershire. 13 cases have been added to this total since we reported on this data last week. 28 cases have been confirmed in Gloucestershire in July so far (50 were confirmed in June).
  • As of 22nd July there have been 259 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in Stroud. This number is one higher than we reported last week, but the last case to be confirmed was from a specimen on the 14th July. There have been two confirmed cases in Stroud district this month (6 were confirmed in June).
  • One more person has been registered with Covid-19 on their death certifcate since we reported on the data last week (ie, between 3rd and 10th July – the latest data available). They were not from Stroud – where the number of people who have died with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate is 92.
  • Both the ONS and the Covid Symptom Study app estimate a higher number of symptomatic cases around the UK this week than last week (24,000-28,000 cases). It is concerning that estimates are not falling.
  • Of the deaths registered by 10 July 2020, 50,946 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; 14.4% of all deaths in England and Wales.” (ONS)

Local statistics

Confirmed cases in Stroud and Gloucestershire

  • As of 22nd July a total of 1,850 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in Gloucestershire. 13 cases have been added to this total since we reported on this data last week (this data and that below is based on analysis of spreadsheet data downloaded from the government’s coronavirus data dashboard. The dashboard provides the totals and current rates, but not the local daily/weekly confirmed numbers – but these are available via the spreadsheets).
  • Gloucestershire has a lab-confirmed cases rate of 292 cases per 100,000 people. This means that of 149 “Upper Tier local Authorities” (County Councils, for example), Gloucestershire has the 23rd lowest rate (or, alternatively, the 127th highest). The highest rate is in Leicester (1,314.4) and the lowest rate is in North East Lincolnshire (133.3). In plain language: after adjusting for population, fewer people have been confirmed to have the virus in Gloucestershire than in most parts of the country. There are only 22 equivalent local authorities where the rate is lower. It is important to note that “confirmed” cases may not reflect the true number of people who have had the virus – but nonetheless, the difference between authorities is more likely to be because of different prevalence of the virus than differences in testing (given access to testing is largely similar around England).
  • As of 22nd July there have been 259 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in Stroud. This number is one higher than we reported last week, but the last case to be confirmed was from a specimen on the 14th July. There have been two confirmed cases in Stroud district this month.
  • Stroud has a confirmed cases rate of 217.6 per 100,000 people. There are 315 “Lower Tier Local Authorities” of which Stroud District Council is one. Of these, Stroud has the 27th lowest rate (alternatively, the 289th highest). For comparison, the highest rate is in Leicester (1,314.4 confirmed cases per 100,000 people – some “Unitary authorities” are on both Lower and Upper Tier lists – because they are neither/both lower and upper tier) and the lowest rate is in Torridge (77.8).
  • The chart below shows confirmed cases in Gloucestershire by week. We are currently half-way through week 30 (in which 2 cases have been confirmed), but as the week is not complete we have left this off the chart (also as confirmations are added for the date of the specimin and therefore are only ‘up to date’ a few days after the end of a week). Confirmed case numbers have been broadly static for 6 weeks (since week 24, the 12th June). Just as there was not enough difference to indicate a rising trend in week 27, there is not enough difference to indicate a falling trend in week 29.

People who have died because of Covid-19 in Stroud and Gloucestershire

  • There have been at least 578 deaths where coronavirus was mentioned in Gloucestershire since the pandemic began, in all settings (hospitals, care homes, private homes and other sites), as of ONS data to week 28 – ending 10th July 2020. One more person has been registered with Covid-19 on their death certifcate since we reported on the data last week (ie, between 3rd and 10th July).
  • The same data shows 92 people have died from or with Covid-19 in Stroud district. This figure has not increased since week 24 when two people from the district died. This means there have been four consecutive weeks where no one has died with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certifcate in Stroud district (data is from ONS data on Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and place of death)
  • We have previously covered a map that has been created by the Office for National Statistics shows areas of England and Wales according to how many people have died with/from Covid-19. This provides a breakdown across areas of Stroud district (by “MSOA” or “Middle Super Output Area” – an ONS geographic unit).You can explore the full ONS data by MSOA and their interactive map, and read our summary and analysis from last week.

The PHE weekly surveillance report (30th January – 14th July 2020) shows:

  • 2,086 people have died in the South West – 22 people have died since the previous report (higher than the 21 who died two weeks ago, but lower than the 33 who died last week). This remains the lowest total number of people to died with the virus of any region in England
  • This equates to a death rate of 37/100,000 people – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 92/100,000 in the North West)
  • 12,879 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the South West, 113 more than in the last report. This is the lowest weekly total for over 4 weeks, and is a welcome drop following a previously increasing trend (319 last week, 235, 160 and 148 in the weeks before that).
  • This equates to an incidence rate of 230/100,000 – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 598/100,000 in the North West).
  • A new surveillance report will be published on the gov.uk website soon (probably the 24th July).

National level data

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics on deaths:

  • “The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 10 July 2020 (Week 28) was 8,690, this was 450 deaths fewer than Week 27.”
  • “In Week 28, the number of deaths registered was 6.1% below the five-year average (560 deaths fewer), this is the fourth consecutive week that deaths have been below the five-year average; the number of deaths in care homes, hospitals and other communal establishments were also fewer than the five-year average, while the number of deaths in private homes was 706 deaths higher than the five-year average.
  • Of the deaths registered in Week 28, 366 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 16 weeks and a 31.2% decrease compared with Week 27 (532 deaths), accounting for 4.2% of all deaths in England and Wales.”
  • “Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available), the number of deaths up to 10 July 2020 was 353,407, which is 53,419 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 10 July 2020, 50,946 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; 14.4% of all deaths in England and Wales.
  • “The number of deaths for England was 332,006, which is 51,695 (18.4%) more than the five-year average. Of these, 48,388 deaths (14.6%) mentioned COVID-19.”
Source: ONS

You can read the full article and access the full data on which the article is based on the ONS website.

Prevalence and Incidence – ONS and COVID Symptom Study app

Prevalence is the total number of estimated cases at any given time, whereas incidence is the estimated number of daily new cases.

Incidence estimates are higher than the the government’s number of “lab confirmed cases” because they are designed to estimate cases that have not been confirmed through testing

The COVID app figures:

  • COVID Symptom Study app incidence: 2,103 daily new cases (this is higher than last week)
  • COVID Symptom Study app prevalence: 28,257 symptomatic COVID (for the second week running this is higher than the week before, to the point it is considerably higher than the estimate of 23,459 two weeks ago. However, the number is down from over 350,000 people on 23 of April, and over 100,000 last month).

You will notice that the two different methods give quite similar results – 1,700-2,100 new daily cases, and 24,000-28,000 symptomatic cases. Both are within the ‘confidence interval’ for each other’s estimates (in other words, when the estimate is made, there is a window given alongside the specific estimate for where the true number might plausibly be). Read about the difference in methodology that leads to these different estimates on the COVID Symptom Study page, “What do all the different COVID figures mean and how do they compare?” – or follow the links above for further details on each estimate.

Hospital admissions

The Centre for Evidence Based Medicine (CEBM) publish government data from “Hospital Acute Trusts data in England from major emergency departments that provide a consultant-led 24-hour service (a type 1 A&E)” with regard to admissions for Covid-19, up to 13th July (it’s not clear why so little new data has been added since last week which went up to the 10th July). This data used to form part of the daily Cabinet Office coronavirus briefings. On the 13th July there were 52 hospital admissions – compared to a peak of 3,099 on the 31st March, and 148 on the 6th July (ie, the previous week).

Source: CEBM

At the global level

Out analysis of data from the Johns Hopkins University tracker shows:

  • Nearly 15 million confirmed cases (14,960,136) – an increase of over 1.6 million cases during the week (1,636,606, the fifth week in a row with over 1 million cases confirmed, and with the number of cases confirmed each week continuing to rise).
  • 12.3% of global confirmed cases were confirmed in the past week (this percentage increase is at least falling slowly).
  • Over 600,000 people have now died – 616,769.
  • 38,141 people died in the past week (around 4,000 more than the number who died in the previous week). In other words, 6.6% of people who died with the virus, died in the last week.
  • 19 countries have over 200,000 cases (Colombia and Bangladesh join the list), and three now have over 1 million confirmed cases:
    • The USA – 3,902,135 cases, a weekly increase of 470,561 (13.7% – a higher number of cases than last week)
    • Brazil – 2,159,654 cases, a weekly increase of 232,830 (12.1% – a lower number and percentage than the previous week for two weeks running)
    • India – 1,193,078 – a weekly increase of 256,897 (27.4% – higher than last week)
    • Russia – 787,846, a weekly increase of 49,059 (6.6% – a higher increase than the previous two weeks, after a dip)
    • Peru – 362,087, increase of 28,220 (8.5% – higher than last week)
    • Mexico – 356,255, increase of 44,769 (14.4% more confirmed cases but a slightly lower percentage increase than last week for the second week running)
    • Chile – 334,683, increase of 15,190 (4.8% – lower than last week for the second week in a row)
    • The UK – 297,389 cases, increase of 4,458 (1.5%). This is a lower increase in numerical and percentage terms than last week – but higher than the week before. In other words, there is still a broadly static rather than downward trend.
    • Iran – 278,827 cases – a weekly increase of 16,654 (6.4% – a very similar increase to last week)
    • Pakistan – 267,428, increase of 11,659 (4.6%, lower than last week for the second week in a row, potentially a sign the virus is coming under control in the country)
    • Spain – 266,194, increase of 9,575 (3.7% – a considerable increase for the second week in a row. Confirmed cases have been increasing for 6 weeks in a row, after having been brought down very low before this)
    • Saudi Arabia – 255,825, increase of 18,022 (7.6% – lower than last week for at least the second week in a row)
    • Italy – 244,752 cases – a weekly increase of 1,408 (0.6% – very similar to last week)
    • Turkey – 221,500, increase of 6,507 (3.0% – lower than last week for the second week running)
    • France – 214,607, increase of 4,967 (2.4% – higher than any of the previous three weeks)
    • Colombia – 211,038, increase of 56,761 (36.8% – accelerating very quickly)
    • Bangladesh – 210,510, increased of 20,453 (10.8 – slightly higher than last week)
  • There are eleven countries where over 10,000 people have died where Covid-19 was involved (no new countries have passed that grim threshold this week):
    • The USA – 142,068 people have died (5,602 people died in the past week, a 4.1% increase. This is a higher number and rate of increase to last week. There is little sign the virus is under control in the USA)
    • Brazil – 81,487 (7,354, 9.9% – similar to last week)
    • The UK – 45,507 (454 people died in the past week, a 1% increase, again slightly lower than the previous week)
    • Mexico – 40,400 (4,073, 11.2% – lower than in the last two weeks)
    • Italy – 35,073 (89, 0.3% – very similar to last week)
    • France – 30,168 (136, 0.5% – higher than last week)
    • India – 28,732 (4,423 – 18.2% – higher than last week)
    • Spain – 28,424 (15 – 0.1% – lower than last week)
    • Iran – 14,634 (1,423 – 10.8% – more than last week)
    • Peru – 13,579 (1,350, 11.0% – similar to last week)
    • Russia – 12,722 (1,125, 9.7% – higher than last week).

It is important to say that different countries are testing and collecting data on deaths in different ways, making fair comparisons difficult. However, the Financial Times provides a useful visual narrative of the spread of Covid-19”, with charts showing comparisons between 20 countries on the best available testing measure – “excess deaths”, as well as global regional comparisons.

As of the FT’s data (13th July), the “UK has one of the highest excess death rates among countries producing comparable data”. The UK has the second highest total number of excess deaths, the fourth highest rate of excess deaths per million people, and the fifth highest total excess deaths relative to the historical average. The FT say “Adjusting for population size, the hardest hit countries are Peru and Ecuador, each of which have seen more than 1,000 excess deaths per million inhabitants. The two Latin American countries have the highest excess percentage — excess deaths expressed as a share of normal deaths for the same period.”

Source: Financial Times

Our condolences

The idea behind this summary of statistics is to help people to understand the pandemic and to reduce the spread of the virus. We know that the blunt representation of numbers can prompt feelings of grief and pain, even while they cannot convey the individuality of the people affected or the emotional toll caused to their loved ones. We send our condolences to all affected.

Notes

We welcome your suggestions for inclusion of data in these summaries. Please submit posts to our Facebook group.

Please remember we have a (growing) list of resources to support your emotional and mental health during this time on our website. The following numbers may be useful:

  • Samaritans: 116 123
  • Domestic Violence Hotline: 0808 2000 247
  • Mind: 0300 123 3393
  • Age UK: 0800 169 6565
  • Childline: 0800 1111.
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