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Wednesday 15th July

Each week we share a summary of local, national, and international data on the coronavirus/Covid-19 pandemic. We hope it is useful, please ask questions, or make suggestions for inclusion of data you have found useful, in our Facebook group.

Key points

  • As of 15th July a total of 1,837 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in Gloucestershire. In the most recent week of data available, 10 cases have been added to the Gloucestershire total.
  • As of 15th July there have been 258 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in Stroud. One case was confirmed in Stroud in the past week – on the 9th July.
  • The latest data (to 3rd July) shows one more person has died in Gloucestershire because of Covid-19 since the the week ending 27th June. They were not from Stroud – where the number of people who have died with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate is 92.
  • According to the COVID Symptom Study “26,021 people [aged 20-69] are currently predicted to have symptomatic COVID in the UK” (as of 15th July, 5:00am BST). This is slightly higher than the estimate of 23,459 last week).
  • “Of the deaths registered by 3 July 2020, 50,548 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; 14.7% of all deaths in England and Wales.” (ONS)

Local statistics

Confirmed cases in Stroud and Gloucestershire

  • As of 7th July a total of 1,837 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in Gloucestershire. In the most recent week of data available, 10 cases have been added to this total (this data and that below is based on analysis of spreadsheet data downloaded from the government’s coronavirus data dashboard. The dashboard provides the totals and current rates, but not the local daily/weekly confirmed numbers – but these are available via the spreadsheets).
  • Gloucestershire has a lab-confirmed cases rate of 289.9 cases per 100,000 people. This means that of 149 “Upper Tier local Authorities” (County Councils, for example), Gloucestershire has the 23rd lowest rate (or, alternatively, the 127th highest). The highest rate is in Leicester (1,237.5) and the lowest rate is in North East Lincolnshire (129.5). In plain language: fewer people have been confirmed to have the virus in Gloucestershire than in most parts of the country. There are only 22 equivalent local authorities where the rate is lower. It is important to note that “confirmed” cases may not reflect the true number of people who have had the virus – but nonetheless, the difference between authorities is more likely to be because of different prevalence of the virus than differences in testing (given access to testing is largely similar around England).
  • As of 15th July there have been 258 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in Stroud. One case was confirmed in the past week – on the 9th July.
  • Stroud has a confirmed cases rate of 216.8 per 100,000 people. There are 315 “Lower Tier Local Authorities” (District councils, for example), of which Stroud District Council is one. Of these, Stroud has the 27th lowest rate (alternatively, the 289th highest). For comparison, the highest rate is in Leicester (1,237.5 confirmed cases per 100,000 people) and the lowest rate is in Torridge (77.9).
  • The chart below shows confirmed cases in Gloucestershire by week. Note that the confirmed cases in the two most recent weeks for which data is available are lower than for over a month, but higher than the three previous weeks. The difference is not yet substantial enough to show and increasing trend, however. We will update this chart next week.
Source: Gov.uk dashboard data, SCCR analysis

People who have died because of Covid-19 in Stroud and Gloucestershire

The PHE weekly surveillance report (30th January – 30th June 2020) shows:

  • 2,064 people have died in the South West – 33 people have died since the previous report (higher than the 21 who died in the previous period). This remains the lowest number of people of any region in England
  • This equates to a death rate of 37/100,000 people – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 90/100,000 in North West)
  • 12,766 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the South West, 319 more than in the last report. For the third week running this is a slightly higher increase than we covered last time (235 last week, 160 and 148 in the weeks before that).
  • This equates to an incidence rate of 228/100,000 – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 588/100,000 in the North West).
  • A new surveillance report for the 16th July will be published on the gov.uk website soon.

National level data

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics on deaths:

  • “The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 3 July 2020 (Week 27) was 9,140, this was 161 deaths more than Week 26.”
  • “In Week 27, the number of deaths registered was 0.5% below the five-year average (43 deaths fewer), this is the third consecutive week that deaths have been below the five-year average; the numbers of deaths in care homes and hospitals were also fewer than the five-year average (88 and 634 deaths lower respectively), while the number of deaths in private homes was 755 higher than the five-year average.”
  • “Of the deaths registered in Week 27, 532 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 15 weeks, accounting for 5.8% of all deaths in England and Wales.“
  • “Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available), the number of deaths up to 3 July 2020 was 344,717, which is 53,979 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 3 July 2020, 50,548 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; 14.7% of all deaths in England and Wales.”
  • “The number of deaths for England was 323,905, which is 52,242 (19.2%) more than the five-year average. Of these, 48,012 deaths (14.8%) mentioned COVID-19“

You can read the full article and access the full data on which the article is based on the ONS website.

According to the latest COVID Symptom Study app figures

“There are currently two main sources of information: the COVID Symptom Study app (us) and the Government’s Office of National Statistics (ONS). Both sources provide estimated prevalence and incidence rates. Prevalence is the total number of estimated cases at any given time, whereas incidence is the estimated number of daily new cases. The Government also provides the total number of lab confirmed cases everyday.‍“

The ONS figures

“The ONS randomly invites around 8,000-9,000 households in England to participate in its testing program and uses these test results to estimate incidence and prevalence. The ONS publishes an estimated prevalence and incidence every two weeks based on their infection survey test results.”

The COVID app figures:

The COVID Symptom study team have “a two step process. First we identify app users who log new  symptoms after being healthy for at least 9 days, and estimate the proportion of newly sick app users. These individual users are then invited to have a COVID swab test provided by the Department of Health taken within 24 hours and are asked to continue logging their symptoms in the app.

The results of these tests allow us to identify the proportion of newly sick individuals who test positive for COVID-19. This two step process enables us to do more targeted swab tests focussed on sick users, who are more likely to be positive. We scale the proportion of sick users with the proportion of those testing positive to get the incidence rate and then generalize it to the wider population to give the estimated number of daily new cases across the UK.”

You will notice that the two different methods give quite similar results – 1,471-1,700 new daily cases, and 14,000-26,000 symptomatic cases (these are more different, but are still roughly of the same order of magnitude / in the same ballpark).

Hospital admissions

The Centre for Evidence Based Medicine (CEBM) publish government data from “Hospital Acute Trusts data in England from major emergency departments that provide a consultant-led 24-hour service (a type 1 A&E)” with regard to admissions for Covid-19, up to 10th July. This data used to form part of the daily Cabinet Office coronavirus briefings. On the 10th July there were 36 hospital admissions – compared to a peak of 3,099 on the 31st March, and 120 on the 3rd July (ie, the previous week).

Source: CEBM

At the global level

Out analysis of data from the Johns Hopkins University tracker shows:

  • 13,323,530 confirmed cases – an increase of nearly 1.5 million cases during the week (1,484,435, the fourth week in a row with over 1 million cases confirmed, and with the number of cases confirmed each week continuing to rise).
  • 12.5% of global confirmed cases were confirmed in the past week (this percentage increase is at least falling).
  • Over 550,000 people have now died – 578,628.
  • 34,213 people died in the past week (very slightly more but broadly the same as the number who died in the previous week). In other words, 6.3% of people who died with the virus, died in the last week.
  • 17 countries have over 200,000 cases (South Africa and Germany join the list):
    • The USA – 3,431,574 cases, a weekly increase of 435,476 (14.5% – more than last week)
    • Brazil – 1,926,824 cases, a weekly increase of 258,235 (15.5% – a lower number and percentage than the previous week for the first time in several weeks)
    • India – 936,181 – a weekly increase of 193,7646 (26.1% – a higher number and similar percentage increase to last week)
    • Russia – 738,787, a weekly increase of 39,038 (5.6% – a lower increase than last week)
    • Peru – 333,867, increase of 24,589 (8.0% – the same as last week)
    • Chile – 319,493, increase of 18,474 (6.1% – lower than last week)
    • Mexico – 311,486, increase of 43,478 (16.2% more confirmed cases but a slightly lower percentage increase than last week)
    • The UK – 292,931 cases, increase of 5,051 (1.8%). Both the number and proportional increase of cases are higher than the previous week (The methodology for reporting positive cases changed on 2 July 2020 to remove duplicates within and across pillars 1 and 2, to ensure that a person who tests positive is only counted once. Due to this change, 30,302 previously reported cases were removed from the UK total, but we were able to calculate a weekly increase of 4,021). With only a week’s data available, it is not possible to draw strong conclusions: this could either be because of an increase in transmission since lockdown was eased, or associated with particular local outbreaks (e.g. in Leicester), or with changes to testing.
    • Iran – 262,173 cases – a weekly increase of 16,485 (6.7% – a lower increase than last week – potentially indicating the current wave in Iran is being controlled again?)
    • Pakistan – 255,769, increase of 18,280 (7.7%, lower than last week)
    • Italy – 243,344 cases – a weekly increase of 1,388 (0.6% – very similar to last week)
    • Saudi Arabia – 237,803, increase of 20,695 (9.5% – lower than last week)
    • Turkey – 214,993, increase of 7,096 (3.4% – similar to last week)
    • France – 209,640, increase of 3,568 (1.7% – back to declining after a rise week)
  • There are eleven countries where over 10,000 people have died where Covid-19 was involved (no new countries have passed that grim threshold this week):
    • The USA – 136,466 people have died (4,986 people died in the past week, 3.8% of all the people to die in the USA, lower than last week. This is a higher rate of increase to last week, though lower than the week before)
    • Brazil – 74,133 (7,392, 11.1% – similar to last week)
    • The UK – 45,053 (577 people died in the past week, 1.3% increase, again slightly lower than the previous week)
    • Mexico – 36,327 (4,313, 13.5% – similar to last week)
    • Italy – 34,984 (85, 0.2% – lower than last week)
    • France – 30,032 (96, 0.3% – very similar to last week)
    • Spain – 28,409 (17 – 0.1% – lower than last week)
    • India – 24,309 (3,667 – 17.8% – similar to last week)
    • Iran – 13,211 (1,280 – 10.7% – more than last week)
    • Peru – 12,229 (1,277, 11.7% – similar to last week)
    • Russia – 11,597 (947, 8.9% – lower than last week).

It is important to say that different countries are testing and collecting data on deaths in different ways, making fair comparisons difficult. However, the Financial Times provides a useful visual narrative of the spread of Covid-19”, with charts showing comparisons between 20 countries on the best available testing measure – “excess deaths”, as well as global regional comparisons. This week, this highlights that a “surge in Latin Ameria means global daily death toll on the rise again”. 48% of daily global deaths are now in Latin America, and the US share of global daily deaths has risen again to 14%.

The Financial Times also provides and interactive tool where you can compare “Cumulative deaths atrributed to Covid-19” per million inhabitants of a county. Below is a comparison which shows the rate is highest in Belgium at 856 deaths per million (we made an error last week in suggesting it was highest in the UK), followed by the UK – 673 deaths per million, Spain, Italy, France (607, 579 and 448 deaths per million ) – and Sweden – 545 deaths per million, and the US – 392 deaths per million (in the latter two cases deaths continue to rise significantly). In Germany there have been 109 deaths per million, and in South Korea just 5.5 deaths per million

Source: Financial Times

The chart below from Johns Hopkins University (updated 15th July) shows countries as dots on a chart comparing deaths (higher the nearer the top of the chart a dot is) and population (higher the nearer the right of the chart a dot is). When a country has a higher death rate per 100,000 population, it appears above a certain diagonal line on the chart. The UK rate is 67.76 deaths per 100,000 people. This is lower than only Belgium ( Read more on Mortality Analyses from Johns Hopkins University.

Our condolences

The idea behind this summary of statistics is to help people to understand the pandemic and to reduce the spread of the virus. We know that the blunt representation of numbers can prompt feelings of grief and pain, even while they cannot convey the individuality of the people affected or the emotional toll caused to their loved ones. We send our condolences to all affected.

Notes

We welcome your suggestions for inclusion of data in these summaries. Please submit posts to our Facebook group.

Please remember we have a (growing) list of resources to support your emotional and mental health during this time on our website. The following numbers may be useful:

  • Samaritans: 116 123
  • Domestic Violence Hotline: 0808 2000 247
  • Mind: 0300 123 3393
  • Age UK: 0800 169 6565
  • Childline: 0800 1111.