Wednesday 8th July

Each week we share a summary of local, national, and international data on the coronavirus/Covid-19 pandemic. We hope it is useful, please ask questions, or make suggestions for inclusion of data you have found useful, in our Facebook group.

Key points

  • As of 7th July there have been 257 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in Stroud. No cases have been confirmed since the 29th June.
  • The UK rate is 66.64 deaths per 100,000 people, more than double the rate in any country bar the US (39.72)
  • Nearly 12 million cases have been confirmed globally – an increase of over 1.3 million cases during the week. As World Health Organization (WHO) director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said yesterday: the coronavirus outbreak is “accelerating, and we have clearly not reached the [global] peak of the pandemic.”

Local statistics

  • As of 7th July a total of 1,827 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in Gloucestershire. In the most recent week of data available, 17 cases have been added to this total. However, the figure is 433 higher than we reported last week. This is because, as explained on the gov.uk website: “Numbers of lab-confirmed positive cases throughout this website (national, regional and local authority level) now include those identified by testing in all settings (pillars 1 and 2). Due to this change many cases previously not attributed to any area are now included in area totals. This is not a recent surge in cases – the cases now being reported occurred from April onwards.”
  • Gloucestershire has a lab-confirmed cases rate of 288.4 cases per 100,000 people. This means the county is ranked 127/149 Upper Tier local Authorities. The highest rate is in Leicester (1136.2) and the lowest rate is in North East Lincolnshire (129.5)
  • As of 7th July there have been 257 confirmed cases of Covid 19 in Stroud. No cases have been confirmed since the 29th June.
  • Stroud has a lab-confirmed cases rate of 215.9 per 100,000 people. This means the district is ranked 289/315 Lower Tier Local Authorities. The highest rate is in Leicester (1,136.2) and the lowest rate is in Torridge (71.9)
  • There have been at least 576 deaths where coronavirus was mentioned in Gloucestershire since the pandemic began, in all settings (hospitals, care homes, private homes and other sites), as of ONS data to week 26 – ending 26th June 2020. This figure has not increased since the data for the week ending 19th June
  • As of the end of week 26 (week ending 26th June 2020), 92 people have died from or with Covid-19 in Stroud district. This figure has not increased since the last update (data is from ONS data on Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and place of death)
  • We have previously covered a map that has been created by the Office for National Statistics shows areas of England and Wales according to how many people have died with/from Covid-19. This provides a breakdown across areas of Stroud district (by “MSOA” or “Middle Super Output Area” – an ONS geographic unit).You can explore the full ONS data by MSOA and their interactive map, and read our summary and analysis from last week.

The PHE weekly surveillance report (30th January – 30th June 2020) shows:

  • 2,031 people have died in the South West – 21 people have died since the previous report (fewer than half the number who died in the previous period). This remains the lowest number of people of any region in England
  • This equates to a death rate of 36/100,000 people – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 89/100,000 in North West)
  • 12,447 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the South West, 235 more than in the last report. For the second week running this is a slightly higher increase than we covered last time (160, before that 148).
  • This equates to an incidence rate of 226/100,000 – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 578/100,000 in the North West).
  • A new surveillance report for the 1st July does not appear to be available, but should be published on the gov.uk website soon.

National level data

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics on deaths:

  • “The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 26 June 2020 (Week 26) was 10,267, which was lower than the five-year average (by 295 deaths), of which 651 deaths involved COVID-19.” (6.3%)
  • “In Week 26, the number of deaths registered was 3.4% below the five-year average (314 deaths fewer), this is the second consecutive week that deaths have been below the five-year average; the numbers of deaths in care homes and hospitals were also fewer than the five-year average (103 and 815 deaths lower respectively), while the number of deaths in private homes was 745 higher than the five-year average.”
  • Of the deaths registered in Week 26, 606 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 13 weeks, accounting for 6.7% of all deaths in England and Wales.
  • “Between Weeks 1 and 12, 138,916 deaths were registered, which was 4,822 fewer than the five-year average for these weeks. However, between Weeks 13 and 26, 196,690 deaths were registered which was 58,873 more than the five-year average. Week 26 showed a continuation of the decreasing trend in excess deaths involving COVID-19.”
  • Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available), the number of deaths up to 26 June was 335,578 which is 54,023 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 26 June 2020, 50,000 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; 14.9% of all deaths in England and Wales.”
Figure showing the number of deaths is now in line with the 5 year average, after a peak over double the 5 year average in mid-late april. Deaths involving Covid-19 are now at the level of influenza and pneumonia deaths per week, having been 5x higher during the peak.

You can read the full article and access the full data on which the article is based on the ONS website.

The Centre for Evidence-based Medicine reports that “There were 56 (43%) Hospital Trusts with no deaths reported in the last 7 days, 104 (79%) reported no deaths [from Covid-19] in the last 48 hours [to 5th July].”

The chart below shows a positive trend where the number of NHS Trusts reporting no deaths in a week is steadily increasing. This means that deaths from Covid-19 are happening in a smaller number of locations. Further data on the deaths by NHS Trust is available on the CEBM website.

Source: CEBM

Hospital admissions

The Centre for Evidence Based Medicine publish government data from “Hospital Acute Trusts data in England from major emergency departments that provide a consultant-led 24-hour service (a type 1 A&E)” with regard to admissions for Covid-19, up to 23rd June. This data used to form part of the daily Cabinet Office coronavirus briefings. We include the chart below as a record – and will include more up to date information as soon as it is availble.

Source: Centre for Evidence Based Research

According to the latest COVID Symptom Study app figures

  • 23,459 people [aged 20-69] are currently predicted to have symptomatic COVID in the UK” (8 of July, 5:00am BST). This number is down from over 350,000 people on 23 of April and over 100,000 people last week.
  • “This estimate is in line with the latest ONS Infection survey in which 25,000 people in England were estimated to be infected with COVID-19 during the two week period that goes from the 14th to the 27th of June.”
  • “The latest data modelling from the COVID Symptom Study app is now able to identify potential COVID hotspots in the UK, as well as showing daily cases in the population. The modelling highlights three key local authorities as potential new hotspots. As well as Leicester which is already back in lockdown, the data has highlighted Dudley and Wolverhampton as other areas in the Midlands that could be heading in the same direction.”
  • The COVID Symptom App team have “recalibrated the prediction model of symptomatic cases to better understand the current levels of COVID in your area and updated the interactive map in data page.” They say they “will be separately estimating the numbers of people with long duration symptoms and updating our website with these figures. We want to emphasise that there are lots of people who continue to have symptoms long after they are no longer infectious – this is an area of huge importance, and one that our researchers are very keen to understand better with your help… The COVID Symptom App team “observe that only 52.2% of people recover within 13 days.”

At the global level

The chart below from Johns Hopkins University (updated 6th July) shows deaths per 100,000 population. Countries at the top of this figure (the UK, US, Chile, Peru and Brazil) have the most deaths proportionally to their population, not necessarily the most deaths overall (although the US, UK and Brazil are the countries with the highest numbers of deaths as well). The UK rate is 66.64 deaths per 100,000 people, more than double the rate in any country bar the US (39.72). Read more on Mortality Analyses from Johns Hopkins University.

Source: Johns Hopkins University

Out analysis of data from the Johns Hopkins University tracker shows:

  • 11,839,095 confirmed cases – an increase of over 1.3 million cases during the week (1,352,073, the third week in a row with over 1 million cases confirmed, and with the number of cases confirmed each week continuing to rise).
  • 12.9% of global confirmed cases were confirmed in the past week (very similar to the 13.2% confirmed last week).
  • Over 500,000 people have now died – 544,415.
  • 32,869 people died in the past week (very slightly less but broadly the same as the number who died in the previous week). In other words, 6.4% of people who died with the virus, died in the last week.
  • 15 countries have over 200,000 cases (Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Chile join the list):
    • The USA – 2,999,098 cases, a weekly increase of 359,560 (13.6% – more than last week)
    • Brazil – 1,668,589 cases, a weekly increase of 266,548 (19.0% – a higher number but lower percentage increase than last week)
    • India – 742,417 cases – a weekly increase of 156,936 (26.8% – a higher number and similar percentage increase to last week)
    • Russia – 699,749 cases, a weekly increase of 46,270 (7.1% – a slightly lower increase than last week)
    • Peru – 309,278, increase of 24,065 (8.4% – the same as last week)
    • Chile – 301,019, increase of 18,976 (6.7% – lower than last week)
    • The UK – 287,880 cases. The methodology for reporting positive cases changed on 2 July 2020 to remove duplicates within and across pillars 1 and 2, to ensure that a person who tests positive is only counted once. Due to this change, 30,302 previously reported cases were removed from the UK total. This means the number of positive cases for the week was 4,021 (which represents 1.4% of total cases, less than last week)
    • Mexico – 268,008, increase of 41,919 (18.5% more than last week)
    • Spain – 252,130 cases, a weekly increase of 2,859 (1.1% – slightly higher than last week)
    • Iran – 245,688 cases – a weekly increase of 18,026 (7.9% – a higher increase than last week – there is little sign of the virus being under control in Iran)
    • Italy – 241,956 cases – a weekly increase of 1,378 (0.6% – very similar to last week)
    • Pakistan – 237,489, increase of 24,019 (11.3%, higher than last week)
    • Saudi Arabia – 217,108, increase of 26,285 (13.8%)
    • Turkey – 207,897, increase of 7,991 (4%)
    • France – 206,072, increase of 4,009 (2% – slightly higher than last week)
  • There are eleven countries where over 10,000 people have died where Covid-19 was involved (Peru and Russia join the list):
    • The USA – 131,480 people have died (4,055 people died in the past week, 3.2% of all the people to die in the USA, lower than last week)
    • Brazil – 66,741 (7,147, 12% –similar to last week)
    • The UK – 44,476 (661 people died in the past week, 1.5% increase, slightly lower than the previous week)
    • Italy – 34,899 (132, 0.4% – slightly higher than last week)
    • Mexico – 32,014 (4,245, 15.2% – lower than last week)
    • France – 29,936 (90, 0.3% – lower than last week)
    • Spain – 28,392 (37 – 0.1% – lower than last week)
    • India – 20,642 (3,242 – 18.6% of all people to die in India died in the past week)
    • Iran – 11,931 (1,114 – 10.3%).

It is important to say that different countries are testing and collecting data on deaths in different ways, making fair comparisons difficult. However, the Financial Times provides a useful visual narrative of the spread of Covid-19”, with charts showing comparisons between 20 countries, as well as global regional comparisons.

Our condolences

The idea behind this summary of statistics is to help people to understand the pandemic and to reduce the spread of the virus. We know that the blunt representation of numbers can prompt feelings of grief and pain, even while they cannot convey the individuality of the people affected or the emotional toll caused to their loved ones. We send our condolences to all affected.

Notes

We welcome your suggestions for inclusion of data in these summaries. Please submit posts to our Facebook group.

Please remember we have a (growing) list of resources to support your emotional and mental health during this time on our website. The following numbers may be useful:

  • Samaritans: 116 123
  • Domestic Violence Hotline: 0808 2000 247
  • Mind: 0300 123 3393
  • Age UK: 0800 169 6565
  • Childline: 0800 1111.
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