Wednesday 1st July 2020

decorative

Each week we share a summary of local, national, and international data on the coronavirus/Covid-19 pandemic. We hope it is useful, please ask questions, or make suggestions for inclusion of data you have found useful, in our Facebook group.

Key points

  • There have been at least 576 deaths linked to coronavirus in Gloucestershire since the pandemic began. Until this week we had only shared data on deaths in hospitals. We now know that 350 in Gloucestershire have died outside of hospitals – in care homes, or their own houses – more than half of all the people who have died locally.
  • As of the end of week 25 (week ending 19 June 2020), 92 people have died from or with Covid-19 in Stroud district. This figure has not increased since the last update. This figure includes deaths in all locations as it is based on death certificates.
  • Of the “deaths registered by 19th June, 49,371 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; 15.1% of all deaths in England and Wales.” (ONS)
  • Over 10 million cases have now been confirmed globally – an increase of over 1 million cases during the week.
  • Over 500,000 people have died globally with the virus – 33,903 people died globally in the past week.
  • 12 countries have over 200,000 cases (3 more than last week), and over 10,000 people have died with Covid-19 in nine countries (1 more than last week)

Local statistics

  • The total number of confirmed cases of the virus is 1,394 in Gloucestershire – this is 12 higher than last week. However, it is not entirely clear whether these cases were confirmed in the past week or are historic confirmation that are only now being added to the total. For context, on 6th May 20 cases were confirmed on a single day – and 63 cases were confirmed on 11th April. It is important to state that this data covers only “pillar one” tests conducted in hospitals and not “pillar two” tests conducted at drive-through centres or via home-testing kits. This is frustrating, because in recent weeks as many as 90% of confirmed cases have come through pillar two tests (see below for more on this issue).
  • Government data shows that the most recent positive tests came on June 29, when two were positive in Gloucestershire – these were in Gloucester and Stroud” (Gloucestershire Live). This brings the total number of confirmed cases in Stroud since testing has been in place to over 200: 201. Again, these are cases confirmed through pillar one only, and will not include any positive tests from the new mobile testing unit in Stratford Park (which is staying there – see our post for details on booking a test if you have symptoms).
  • Gloucestershire County Council said in a tweet: “IMPORTANT: There is no spike in Covid-19 cases in the county. The data provided by @DHSCgovuk is NOT live data. It shows the number of cases in the county but NOT when they were detected. These are historical cases that happened to be added to the total yesterday.”
  • “There have been at least 576 deaths linked to coronavirus in Gloucestershire since the pandemic began. The number of deaths in NHS settings, such as hospitals, in the county is known to be at 226 and is updated daily by NHS England.” No-one has died in a Gloucestershire hospital in the past fortnight (potentially people have died in other settings but this data is not yet available) Until this week we had only shared data on deaths in hospitals. We now know that 350 in Gloucestershire have died outside of hospitals – in care homes, or their own houses – more than half of all the people who have died locally.
  • As of the end of week 25 (week ending 19 June 2020), 92 people have died from or with Covid-19 in Stroud district. This figure has not increased since the last update (data is from ONS data on Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and place of death)

The PHE weekly surveillance report (30th January – 24th June 2020) shows:

  • 2,010 people have died in the South West – 44 people have died since the previous report (very similar to the 48 who died in the previous period). This remains the lowest number of people of any region in England
  • This equates to a death rate of 36/100,000 people – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 87/100,000 in North West)
  • 12,447 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the South West, 160 more than in the last report. This is a slightly higher increase than we covered last time (148).
  • This equates to an incidence rate of 225/100,000 – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 569/100,000 in the North West).
  • A new surveillance report for the 1st July does not appear to be available, but should be published on the gov.uk website soon.

Other local data

National level data

The 24th June Public Health England COVID-19 epidemiology surveillance summary shows that as of that date there had been 238,911 confirmed cases of Covid-19 (including “Pillar one” tests in hospitals and “Pillar two” tests in drive-through test centres and home-testing kits).

The epidemiology surveillance summary contains an infographic with a helpful chart on cases of Covid-19 confirmed by “pillar 1” testing (in hospitals) and “pillar 2” (in drive-through test centres and via home-testing kits).

On the chart below, pillar 1 tests are shown in green and pillar two in yellow. You can see that to begin with cases were only confirmed through pillar 1 tests, by that more recently an increasing propotion have been through pillar 2 tests. The chart still shows a clear decline in cases – even if the rate of decline is slowing in the weeks for which full data is available. Further, as the chart notes “only data from more than five days ago can be considered complete. The data are shown by the week the specimen was taken all data may be subject to change over time”. This means that we not only need to be cautious about any testing data which only covers pillar 1 cases, but particularly cautious about new data.

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics on deaths:

  • “The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 19 June 2020 (Week 25) was 9,339, this was 637 lower than Week 24.”
  • “In Week 25, the number of deaths registered was 0.7% below the five-year average (65 deaths fewer), this is the first time weekly deaths have been below the five-year average since Week 11; the number of deaths in care homes and hospitals were also fewer than the five-year average (49 and 782 deaths lower respectively), while the number of deaths at home was 827 higher than the five-year average.”
  • Of the deaths registered in Week 25, 783 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)“, the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 12 weeks; accounting for 8.4% of all deaths in England and Wales.”
  • “Between Weeks 1 and 12, 138,916 deaths were registered, which was 4,822 less than the five-year average for these weeks. However, between Weeks 13 and 25, 187,711 deaths were registered, which was 59,187 more than the five-year average.”
  • “Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available), the number of deaths up to 19 June 2020 was 326,600, which is 54,338 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 19 June, 49,371 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; 15.1% of all deaths in England and Wales.”
  • “The number of deaths involving COVID-19 continued to decrease across all English regions, with four of the nine having fewer overall deaths than the five-year average in Week 25.”
  • “The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 19 June 2020 (Week 25) was 10,681, which was similar to the five-year average (8 deaths fewer); of the deaths registered in the UK in Week 25, 849 deaths involved COVID-19.” (7.9%)
Figure showing the number of deaths is now in line with the 5 year average, after a peak over double the 5 year average in mid-late april. Deaths involving Covid-19 are now at the level of influenza and pneumonia deaths per week, having been 5x higher during the peak.

You can read the full article and access the full data on which the article is based on the ONS website.

According to the latest COVID Symptom Study app figures

At the global level

Out analysis of data from the Johns Hopkins University tracker shows:

  • 10,487,022 confirmed cases – an increase of over 1 million cases during the week (1,221,001, the second week in a row with over 1 million cases confirmed, and with the number of cases confirmed each week continuing to rise).
  • 13.2% of global confirmed cases were confirmed in the past week (very similar to the 13.1% then confirmed last week).
  • Over 500,000 people have now died – 511,546.
  • 33,903 died in the past week (very slightly more but broadly the same as the number who died in the previous week). In other words, 7.1% of people who died with the virus, died in the last week.
  • 12 countries have over 200,000 cases (Mexico, Pakistan, and France join the list):
    • The USA – 2,636,538 cases, a weekly increase of 289,436 (12.3% – more than last week)
    • Brazil – 1,402,041 cases, a weekly increase of 256,135 (22.4% – a higher number but lower percentage increase than last week)
    • Russia – 653,479 cases, a weekly increase of 54,601 (9.1% – a slightly higher increase than last week)
    • India – 585,481 cases – a weekly increase of 129,298 (28.3% – a higher number and similar percentage increase to last week)
    • The UK – 314,161 cases, a weekly increase of 6,479 (2.1% – less than last week, but not by a huge amount)
    • Spain – 249,271 cases, a weekly increase of 2,519 (1% – the same as last week)
    • Italy – 240,578 cases – a weekly increase of 1,745 (0.7% – very similar to last week)
    • Iran – 227,662 cases – a weekly increase of 17,692 (8.4% – a higher increase than last week – there is little sign of the virus being under control in Iran)
  • There are nine countries where over 10,000 people have died where Covid-19 was involved (Iran joins the list):
    • The USA – 127,425 people have died (6,200 people died in the past week, 5.1% of all the people to die in the USA, a bit higher than last week)
    • Brazil – 59,594 (6,949, 13.2% – lower than last week)
    • The UK – 43,815 (804 people died in the past week, 1.9% increase, slightly lower than the previous week)
    • Italy – 34,767 (92, 0.3% – lower than last week)
    • France – 29,846 (123, 0.4% – lower than last week)
    • Spain – 28,355 (30 – 0.1% – much lower than last week)
    • Mexico – 27,769 (4,392, 18.8% – fewer people than last week)
    • India – 17,400 (2,924 – 20.2% of all people to die in India died in the past week)
    • Iran – 10,817 (we do not have a figure from last week to describe the weekly rise).

It is important to say that different countries are testing and collecting data on deaths in different ways, making fair comparisons difficult. However, the Financial Times “provides an up-to-date visual narrative of the spread of Covid-19”, with charts showing comparisons between 20 countries, as well as global regional comparisons. This has not been updated since last week when in showed:

  • There have been 65,700 “excess deaths” in the UK compared to the 5-year average (49% higher than average)
  • This is the highest number of excess deaths in any country other than the US (122,300 excess deaths, 25% higher than average)
  • It is the highest % increase on average of any country other than Peru (28,600 excess deaths, 141% increase)
  • There have been no excess deaths in Iceland, Israel, Norway, or South Africa

Our condolences

We send our condolences to everyone directly affected, and our best wishes to all readers during this traumatic time. We hope this summary of statistics – even where they are limited – can help people to understand the pandemic and to reduce the spread of the virus. But we know numbers are cannot hope to convey the individuality of the people affected or the emotional toll involved.

Notes

We welcome your suggestions for inclusion of data in these summaries. Please submit posts to our Facebook group.

Please remember we have a (growing) list of resources to support your emotional and mental health during this time on our website. The following numbers may be useful:

  • Samaritans: 116 123
  • Domestic Violence Hotline: 0808 2000 247
  • Mind: 0300 123 3393
  • Age UK: 0800 169 6565
  • Childline: 0800 1111.