Wednesday 24th June 2020

  • As of the end of week 24 (week ending 12 June 2020), 92 people who have died from or with Covid-19 in Stroud district (3 people died in weeks 23 and 24, ONS)
  • In Gloucestershire, only one case has been confirmed since last week, and no-one has died in a Gloucestershire hospital.
  • Of the deaths registered by 12 June 2020, 48,538 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; 15.3% of all deaths in England and Wales (ONS).
  • The Financial Times estimates that there have been 65,700 “excess deaths” in the UK compared to the 5-year average (49% higher than average)
  • Over 9 million cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed globally (9,266,021, Johns Hopkins University – JHU)
  • Confirmed cases globally have increased by over 1 million cases during the week (1,073,321) – for the second week running (JHU).

Today’s update includes our weekly summary of key local, national and international statistics.

Local statistics

  • The total number of confirmed cases of the virus is 1,382 in Gloucestershire – just 1 higher than last week. A case was confirmed on 18th June. 8 cases have been confirmed since Tuesday 2nd June, and 20 in the past month. For context, on 6th May 20 cases were confirmed on a single day – and 63 cases were confirmed on 11th April.
  • 226 people from Gloucestershire have died in hospitals – no-one has died in a Gloucestershire hospital in the past week (potentially people have died in other settings but this data is not yet available.)
  • As of the end of week 24 (week ending 12 June 2020), 92 people who have died from or with Covid-19 in Stroud district (3 people died in weeks 23 and 24, ONS data on Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and place of death)
Daily confirmed cases in Gloucestershire (Sky News)

The PHE weekly surveillance report (30th January – 17th June 2020) shows:

  • 1,966 people have died in the South West – 48 more than was the case in the previous report. This is the lowest number of people of any region in England
  • This equates to a death rate of 35/100,000 people – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 84/100,000 in both the North West and North East)
  • 12,447 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the South West, 146 more than in the last report.
  • This equates to an incidence rate of 222/100,000 – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 556/100,000 in the North East).
  • A new surveillance report for the 24th June does not appear to be available, but should be published on the gov.uk website soon.

Other local data

  • Last week we covered a map that has been created by the Office for National Statistics shows areas of England and Wales according to how many people have died with/from Covid-19. This provides a breakdown across areas of Stroud district (by “MSOA” or “Middle Super Output Area” – an ONS geographic unit).You can explore the full ONS data by MSOA and their interactive map, and read our summary and analysis from last week.
  • Gloucestershire Hospitals Trust have not issued any further public information on safe discharge of patients (as of 18th May they had safely discharged 441 patients, and we know the figure is at least a little higher than this now).
  • The Office for National Statistics on “Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and health board” records three new death registrations and occurences. As of the end of week 24 (week ending 12 June 2020), 92 people who have died from or with Covid-19 in Stroud district.
  • There have been 22 death occurences and 24 registrations in the week, so the 89 people who have died with or from Covid-19 are now 14.7% of all 604 death occurrences, and 13.8% of all 644 death registrations in the district this year – by our estimates.

National level data

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics on deaths:

  • “The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 12 June 2020 (Week 24) was 9,976; this was 733 lower than Week 23 and 5.9% (559 deaths) higher than the five-year average.”
  • Of the deaths registered in Week 24, 1,114 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 11 weeks; accounting for 11.2% of all deaths in England and Wales.
  • “Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available), the number of deaths up to 12 June was 317,260 which is 54,402 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 12 June 2020, 48,538 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; 15.3% of all deaths in England and Wales.”
  • “between Weeks 13 and 24, 178,372 deaths were registered which was 59,252 more than the five-year average.”
  • “In Week 24, the proportion of deaths occurring in care homes decreased to 21.4% while deaths involving COVID-19 as a percentage of all deaths in care homes decreased to 17.3%.”
  • “In Week 24, the number of deaths in care homes was 199 deaths higher than the five-year average, while in hospitals the number of deaths was 503 fewer than the five-year average; the total number of excess deaths involving COVID-19 continued to decrease.”
  • “The number of deaths involving COVID-19 continued to decrease across all English regions but only the North East had fewer overall deaths than the five-year average in Week 24.”
  • “Of all deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to Week 24, 63.6% occurred in hospital with the remainder mainly occurring in care homes (29.7%), private homes (4.5%) and hospices (1.4%).”
  • The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 12 June 2020 (Week 24) was 11,289 of which 1,205 deaths involved COVID-19.” (10.7%)

You can read the full article and access the full data on which the article is based on the ONS website.

Daily additional COVID-19 associated UK deaths by date reported (Gov.uk)
Daily number of lab-confirmed cases in England by specimen date (Gov.uk)

According to the latest COVID Symptom Study app figures

  • 134,260 people [aged 20-69] are currently predicted to have symptomatic COVID in the UK” (23 of June, 5:00am BST). This number is down from over 350,000 people on 23 of April and over 250,000 on 21st May.
  • “latest incidence figures suggest that there are currently 3,612 daily new cases of COVID in the UK on average over the two weeks up to 13 June 2020 (excluding care homes). These incidence figures were based on 17,984 swab tests from 31 May to 13 June. This suggests that daily new infection rates across the UK have dropped by over a quarter (26%) from last week’s figure.”
  • This includes 12-58 daily new cases per million people in the South West.
  • R for the South West is estimated at 0.9 (0.7-1.1). Along with the South East and London this is the highest estimated rate for a region. R is estimated to be lowest in Wales (0.5, 0.1-0.9).

Read the full analysis from the COVID-19 Symptom Study app (19th June) (this app has been developed by health science company ZOE and it is endorsed by the Welsh Government, NHS Wales, the Scottish Government and NHS Scotland, and data is being analysed in collaboration with King’s College London researchers.

Day by day evolution of the infection across the UK (Covid Symptom Study)

At the global level

Out analysis of data from the Johns Hopkins University tracker shows:

  • 9,266,021 confirmed cases – an increase of over 1 million cases during the week (1,073,321, the second week in a row with over 1 million cases confirmed).
  • 13.1% of global confirmed cases were confirmed in the past week.
  • 477,643 people have now died – meaning 33,532 died in the past week (very slightly less but broadly the same as the number who died in the previous week). In other words, 7.6% of people who died with the virus, died in the last week.
  • 9 countries have over 200,000 cases (Iran joins the list):
    • The USA – 2,347,102 cases, a weekly increase of 209,371 (9.8% – more than last week)
    • Brazil – 1,145,906 cases, a weekly increase of 222,717 (24.1% – a higher number but lower percentage increase than last week)
    • Russia – 598,878 cases, a weekly increase of 46,329 (8.4% – a lower increase than last week)
    • India – 456,183 cases – a weekly increase of 102,118 (28.8% – a higher number and similar percentage increase to last week)
    • The UK – 307,682 cases, a weekly increase of 8,082 (2.7% – less than last week, but not by much)
    • Spain – 246,752 cases, a weekly increase of 2,422 (1% – the same as last week)
    • Italy – 238,833 cases – a weekly increase of 1,333 (0.6% – very similar to last week)
    • Iran – 209,970 cases – a weekly increase of 14,919 (7.6% – there has been some discussion that this represents a “second wave” in Iran)
  • There are eight countries where over 10,000 people have died where Covid-19 was involved:
    • The USA – 121,225 people have died (4,262 people died in the past week, 3.6% of all the people to die in the USA, a little low than last week)
    • Brazil – 52,645 (7,404, 16.4% – lower than last week)
    • The UK – 43,011 (957 people died in the past week, 2.3% increase, slightly lower than the previous week)
    • Italy – 34,675 (270, 0.6% – lower than last week)
    • France – 29,723 (173, 0.6% – lower than last week)
    • Spain – 28,325 (1,189 – 4.4% – a sizeable change, we think related to reporting that saw no deaths added last week)
    • Mexico – 23,377 (5,067, 27.7% – more people than last week)
    • Inda – 14,476 (2,573 – 21.6% of all people to die in India died in the past week)

It is important to say that different countries are testing and collecting data on deaths in different ways, making fair comparisons difficult. However, the Financial Times “provides an up-to-date visual narrative of the spread of Covid-19”, with charts showing comparisons between 20 countries, as well as global regional comparisons. This currently shows:

  • There have been 65,700 “excess deaths” in the UK compared to the 5-year average (49% higher than average)
  • This is the highest number of excess deaths in any country other than the US (122,300 excess deaths, 25% higher than average)
  • It is the highest % increase on average of any country other than Peru (28,600 excess deaths, 141% increase)
  • There have been no excess deaths in Iceland, Israel, Norway, or South Africa

Our condolences

It is always worth saying that while the statistics above are helpful to our understanding of the pandemic, they are not an effective way to communicate the humanity of the people affected or the emotional toll involved. We send our condolences to everyone directly affected, and our best wishes to all readers during this traumatic time.

Notes

Please remember we have a (growing) list of resources to support your emotional and mental health during this time on our website. The following numbers may be useful:

  • Samaritans: 116 123
  • Domestic Violence Hotline: 0808 2000 247
  • Mind: 0300 123 3393
  • Age UK: 0800 169 6565
  • Childline: 0800 1111.