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Updates

Wednesday 17th June 2020

Key Points

  • Just 3 new coronavirus cases have been confirmed in Gloucestershire in the past week (Gloucestershire Live).
  • In Stroud district, 89 people have died with or from Covid-19 this year – but no-one has died with/from the virus for a fortnight (ONS data, our analysis).
  • In the UK 47,387 people have died with Covid-19 mentioned on their death certificate (as of 5th June – the latest available data). This is 15.4% of all deaths registered by 5 June 2020 (ONS).
  • The Financial Times estimates that there have been 64,200 “excess deaths” in the UK to date, compared to the 5-year average (57% higher than average).
  • Over 8 million cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed globally (8,192,700)
  • Confirmed cases have increased by over 1 million cases during the week (1,017,775)

Today’s update includes our weekly summary of key local, national and international statistics.

Local statistics

The total number of confirmed cases of the virus is 1,381 in Gloucestershire – just 3 higher than last week. Only 7 cases have been confirmed since Tuesday 2nd June.

226 people from Gloucestershire have died in hospitals – one more person has died since Thuesday 2nd June.

The PHE weekly surveillance report (30th January – 10th June 2020) shows:

  • 1,918 people have died in the South West – the is the lowest number of people of any region in England
  • This equates to a death rate of 34/100,000 people – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 82/100,000 in both the North West and North East)
  • 12,301 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the South West
  • This equates to an incidence rate of 220/100,000 – this is the lowest rate of any region in England (the highest rate is 547/100,000 in the North East).
  • A new surveillance report for the 17th June does not appear to be available, but should be published on the gov.uk website soon.

A map has been created by the Office for National Statistics shows areas of England and Wales according to how many people have died with/from Covid-19

In the Stroud district (by “MSOA” or “Middle Super Output Area” – an ONS geographic unit):

  • 11 people have died in Upton St Leonards and Hardwicke
  • 11 people have died in Ebley and Randwick
  • 10 people have died in Stonehouse
  • 10 people have died in Nailsworth
  • 9 people have died in Berkeley and Sharpness
  • 5 people have died in Leonard Stanley and Uley
  • 5 people have died in Frampton, Whitminster and Eastington
  • 4 people have died in Stroud Town
  • 4 people have died in Cam
  • 4 people have died in Dursley
  • 4 people have died in Wotton-under-Edge and Kingswood
  • 4 people have died in Painswick, Bisley and Eastcombe
  • 4 people have died in Rodborough and Thrupp
  • 3 people have died in Chalford and Bussage
  • Gloucestershire Live reports the Gloucestershire electoral wards with the fewest recorded deaths, which includes Minchinhampton and Amberley – where just one person has been registered as having died with or from Covid-19 (in March).

You can explore the full ONS data by MSOA and their interactive map.

The populations in each area vary considerably, so below we present the number of people who have died in each area for every 100,000 people estimated to live there in 2018 by the ONS (in common with other calculations made nationally). Note that the South West death rate is 34/100,000 people, and the highest rate at a regional level is 82/100,000 in both the North West and North East):

  • Nailsworth – 6,550 people: 153 covid-19 deaths per 100,000 people
  • Berkeley and Sharpness – 6,434 people: 140 covid-19 deaths per 100,000 people
  • Stonehouse – 8,091 people: 124 covid-19 deaths per 100,000 people
  • Upton St Leonards and Hardwicke – 9,737 people: 113 covid-19 deaths per 100,000 people
  • Ebley and Randwick – 11,805 people: 93 covid-19 deaths per 100,000 people
  • Leonard Stanley and Uley – 6,715 people: 74 covid-19 deaths per 100,000 people
  • Framptom, Whitminster and Eastington – 6,775 people: 74 covid-19 deaths per 100,000 people
  • Painswick, Bisley and Eastcombe – 6,639 people: 60 covid-19 deaths per 100,000 people
  • Rodborough and Thrupp – 6,838 people: 58 covid-19 deaths per 100,000 people
  • Dursley – 7,504 people: 53 covid-19 deaths per 100,000 people
  • Chalford and Bussage – 6,330 people: 47 covid-19 deaths per 100,000 people
  • Cam – 8,533 people: 47 covid-19 deaths per 100,000 people
  • Wotton-under-Edge and Kingswood – 8,777 people: 46 covid-19 deaths per 100,000 people
  • Stroud Town – 11,598 people: 34 covid-19 deaths per 100,000 people
  • Minchinhampton and Amberley – 6,693 people: 15 covid-19 deaths per 100,000 people.

Another way to look at the data is to compare it to the average number of people who have died in each area over the past 5 years. We are here comparing 3 months of data (Covid-19 related deaths in March, April and May) to 12 months (average annual deaths in 2014-2018).

  • Upton St Leonards and Hardwicke – Covid-19 deaths in 2020 are 16.2% of 5 year average deaths (68 people die/year)
  • Nailsworth – Covid-19 deaths in 2020 are 14.9% of 5 year average deaths (67 people die/year)
  • Berkeley and Sharpness – Covid-19 deaths in 2020 are 11.3% of 5 year average deaths (79 people die/year)
  • Stonehouse – Covid-19 deaths in 2020 are 11.3% of 5 year average deaths (88 people die/year)
  • Rodborough and Thrupp – Covid-19 deaths in 2020 are 8.1% of 5 year average deaths (49 people die/year)
  • Ebley and Randwick – Covid-19 deaths in 2020 are 8.0% of 5 year average deaths (137 people die/year)
  • Chalford and Bussage – Covid-19 deaths in 2020 are 7.1% of 5 year average deaths (42 people die/year)
  • Leonard Stanley and Uley – Covid-19 deaths in 2020 are 7.1% of 5 year average deaths (71 people die/year)
  • Cam – Covid-19 deaths in 2020 are 4.9% of 5 year average deaths (82 people die/year)
  • Dursley – Covid-19 deaths in 2020 are 4.7% of 5 year average deaths (85 people die/year)
  • Framptom, Whitminster and Eastington – Covid-19 deaths in 2020 are 4.6% of 5 year average deaths (108 people die/year)
  • Painswick, Bisley and Eastcombe – Covid-19 deaths in 2020 are 4.6% of 5 year average deaths (87 people die/year)
  • Stroud Town – Covid-19 deaths in 2020 are 4.2% of 5 year average deaths (96 people die/year)
  • Wotton-under-Edge and Kingswood – Covid-19 deaths in 2020 are 4.1% of 5 year average deaths (97 people die/year)
  • Minchinhampton and Amberley – Covid-19 deaths in 2020 are 1.2% of 5 year average deaths (81 people die/year)
  • Gloucestershire Hospitals Trust have not issued any further public information on safe discharge of patients (as of 18th May they had safely discharged 441 patients, and we know the figure is at least a little higher than this now).
  • The Office for National Statistics on “Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and health board” records one new death registration and no new occurences -recoconciling the figures for Covid-19 in Stroud District, as of the end of week 22 (week ending 29 May 2020) at 89 people who have died from or with Covid-19.
  • There have been 22 death occurences and 24 registrations in the week, so the 89 people who have died with or from Covid-19 are now 14.7% of all 604 death occurrences, and 13.8% of all 644 death registrations in the district this year – by our estimates.
  • The latest Public Health England COVID-19 epidemiology surveillance summary, accompanied by a PHE infographic (pdf) was published, providing data up to 3 June 2020. This showed 11,945 Covid-19 cases in the South West – an increase of 4,388 from the 7,557 over the past week, a dramatic figure compare to approximately 400 over the previous fortnight. This is hopefully mainly explained by increased testing and certainly by cases outside Gloucestershire. The South West incidence rate was 213/100,000, up from 135/100,000. The lowest incidence rate – the next lowest is now the East of England (333/100,000 – no longer the East Midlands – now 336), the highest is the North East at 533/100,000.
  • The PHE summary also shows 1,858 people have died (up 148 from 1,710 people a week ago. The death rate in the South West is 33/100,000 – again the lowest for any English region (next lowest is the South East at 52/100,000, and highest are the North East and North West, both at 78/100,000, more than double the South West rate).

National level data

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics on deaths:

  • “The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 5 June 2020 (Week 23) was 10,709; this was 885 higher than Week 22 and 7.3% (732 deaths) higher than the five-year average; this increase is likely due to the Late May Bank Holiday, which occurred in Week 22.”
  • “Of the deaths registered in Week 23, 1,588 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last nine weeks… 234 deaths lower than Week 22.”
  • “Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available), the number of deaths up to 5 June 2020 was 307,289, which is 53,848 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 5 June 2020, 47,387 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; this is 15.4% of all deaths.”
  • “between Weeks 13 and 23, 168,396 deaths were registered, which is 58,693 more than the five-year average.”
  • “Of all deaths registered in Week 23, 14.8% mentioned COVID-19; down from 18.5% in Week 22.”
  • “People aged 90 years and over continued to have the highest number of COVID-19 deaths in Week 23.”
  • “In Week 23, the proportion of deaths occurring in care homes decreased to 22.6%, while deaths involving COVID-19 as a percentage of all deaths in care homes decreased to 23.4%.”
  • “In Week 23, the number of deaths in care homes was 335 higher than the five-year average, while in hospitals the number of deaths was 538 fewer than the five-year average; the total number of excess deaths involving COVID-19 continued to decrease.”
  • “The number of deaths involving COVID-19 continued to decrease across all English regions with the number of deaths in London falling below the five-year average; the North West had the highest number of COVID-19 deaths in Week 23 (250 deaths).
  • “Of all deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to Week 23, 63.7% occurred in hospital with the remainder mainly occurring in care homes (29.6%), private homes (4.5%) and hospices (1.4%).”
  • “The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 5 June 2020 (Week 23) was 12,092, of which 1,697 deaths involved COVID-19.” (14%)

You can read the full article, and download the data on which it is based on the ONS website.

According to the latest COVID Symptom Study app figures based on positive swab tests (Published 11th June)

  • There are now just below 5,000 daily new cases of COVID across the UK (excluding care homes)
  • “This number has fallen by almost a half (47%) from the 9,400 figure last week, suggesting the current COVID trend in the UK is much more positive than currently thought. The figures were based on 12,872 swab tests from 24 May to 6 June 2020 and extrapolated to the wider population.”
  • “The numbers of new cases estimated daily in England (4,523) is similar to that estimated last week (5,570) from the latest ONS household survey that also uses swab testing.”
  • “according to swab-based population data from the COVID Symptom Study app, R is below one in all regions, although the confidence limits are wide in some areas… The South R = 0.7, [0.3-1.0]”
  • “These R figures were calculated using over one million people in the community logging regularly combined with swab testing of a subset, as described above, in contrast to other models using the smaller and delayed number of deaths. This method of calculating R uses a wider community population and is more current than seen in models using deaths.”

Read the full analysis from the COVID-19 Symptom Study app (this app has been developed by health science company ZOE and it is endorsed by the Welsh Government, NHS Wales, the Scottish Government and NHS Scotland, and data is being analysed in collaboration with King’s College London researchers.

Public Health England published: Beyond the data: Understanding the impact of COVID-19 on BAME groups

While this report is a “descriptive summary of stakeholder insights into the factors that may be influencing the impact of COVID-19 on BAME communities and strategies for addressing inequalities”, it includes a reminder of some of the key data around disparities in the impact of Covid-19:

“An analysis of survival among confirmed COVID-19 cases showed that, after accounting for the effect of sex, age, deprivation and region, people of Bangladeshi ethnicity had around twice the risk of death when compared to people of White British ethnicity. People of Chinese, Indian, Pakistani, Other Asian, Caribbean and Other Black ethnicity had between 10 and 50% higher risk of death when compared to White British.”

“Comparing to previous years, all-cause mortality was almost 4 times higher than expected among Black males for this period, almost 3 times higher in Asian males and almost 2 times higher in White males. Among females, deaths were almost 3 times higher in this period in Black, Mixed and Other females, and 2.4 times higher in Asian females compared with 1.6 times in White females.”

At the global level

Out analysis of data from the Johns Hopkins University tracker shows:

  • 8,192,700 confirmed cases – an increase of over 1 million cases during the week (1,017,775, more than the previous week). In other words, 14.2% of confirmed cases were confirmed in the past week.
  • 444,111 people have now died – meaning 35,300 died in the past week (more than in the previous week). In other words, 8.6% of people who died with the virus, died in the last week.
  • 8 countries have over 200,000 cases:
    • The USA – 2,137,731 cases, a weekly increase of 168,864 (8.6% – more than last week)
    • Brazil – 923,189 cases, a weekly increase of 215,777 (30.5% – double the increase last week)
    • Russia – 552,549 cases, a weekly increase of 67,919 (14% – a higher raw number of confirmed cases)
    • The UK – 299,600 cases, a weekly increase of 9,025 (31.% – less than last week)
    • India – 354,056 cases – a weekly increase of 79,307 (28.9% – a higher raw number of confirmed cases)
    • Spain – 244,328 cases, a weekly increase of 2,362 (1% – more than last week)
    • Italy – 237,500 cases – a weekly increase of 1,939 (0.8% – very similar to last week)
  • There are eight countries where over 10,000 people have died where Covid-19 was involved:
    • The USA – 116,963 people have died (5,343 people died in the past week, 4.8% increase, very similar to last week)
    • Brazil – 45,241 (9,107, 22% – higher than last week)
    • The UK – 42,054 (1,086 people died in the past week, 2.7% increase, lower than the previous week)
    • Italy – 34,405 (362, 1.1% – lower than last week)
    • France – 29,550 (251, 0.9% – lower than last week)
    • Spain – 27,136 (no one died with Covid-19 in the past week)
    • Mexico – 18,310 (4,257, 30% – more people than last week)
    • Inda – 11,903 (we do not have a figure to compare to from last week)

It is important to say that different countries are testing and collecting data on deaths in different ways, making fair comparisons difficult. However, the Financial Times “provides an up-to-date visual narrative of the spread of Covid-19”, with charts showing comparisons between 20 countries, as well as global regional comparisons. This currently shows:

  • There have been 64,200 “excess deaths” in the UK compared to the 5-year average (57% higher than average)
  • This is the highest number of excess deaths in any country other than the US (100,000 excess deaths, 26% higher than average)
  • It is the highest % increase on average of any country other than Peru (19,700 excess deaths, 123% increase)
  • There have been no excess deaths in Iceland, Israel, Norway, or South Africa

Our condolences

We send out condolences to all those affected. It is worth emphasising that these statistics cannot hope to convey the individuality of each person who has died, nor the grief and sadness of their loved ones and friends. We nonetheless believe sharing them is helpful to understand the pandemic, and to reduce as far as possible the number of people who suffer and die in future.

Notes

Please remember we have a (growing) list of resources to support your emotional and mental health during this time on our website. The following numbers may be useful:

  • Samaritans: 116 123
  • Domestic Violence Hotline: 0808 2000 247
  • Mind: 0300 123 3393
  • Age UK: 0800 169 6565
  • Childline: 0800 1111.