Wednesday 10th June 2020

Key Points

  • Just four new coronavirus cases have been confirmed in Gloucestershire in the past week, and only one person has died.
  • In Stroud, 89 people have died with or from Covid-19 this year – and there has been no change in this figure over the past week. (ONS data, our analysis)
  • On Monday “The UK recorded its lowest daily rise in the number of coronavirus deaths since before lockdown on 23 March”
  • Less positively: “The UK is only the second country – after the US – to pass the milestone of 40,000 deaths.” (BBC News, see below for full details).

Today’s update includes our weekly summary of key local, national and international statistics.

Summary of key local statistics

  • “There has been no new coronavirus cases in Gloucestershire – in in the last 24 hours, and no new deaths recorded in the county, according to figures released by Public Health England today (Wednesday June 10).” (Gloucestershire Live)
  • 1,378 cases have been confirmed in Gloucestershire in total, one more from Monday’s figures, and just 4 more than last Tuesday 2nd.
  • Gloucestershire Hospitals Trust have not issued any further public information on safe discharge of patients (as of 18th May they had safely discharged 441 patients, and we know the figure is at least a little higher than this now).
  • The Office for National Statistics on “Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and health board” records one new death registration and no new occurences -recoconciling the figures for Covid-19 in Stroud District, as of the end of week 22 (week ending 29 May 2020) at 89 people who have died from or with Covid-19.
  • There have been 22 death occurences and 24 registrations in the week, so the 89 people who have died with or from Covid-19 are now 14.7% of all 604 death occurrences, and 13.8% of all 644 death registrations in the district this year – by our estimates.
  • The latest Public Health England COVID-19 epidemiology surveillance summary, accompanied by a PHE infographic (pdf) was published, providing data up to 3 June 2020. This showed 11,945 Covid-19 cases in the South West – an increase of 4,388 from the 7,557 over the past week, a dramatic figure compare to approximately 400 over the previous fortnight. This is hopefully mainly explained by increased testing and certainly by cases outside Gloucestershire. The South West incidence rate was 213/100,000, up from 135/100,000. The lowest incidence rate – the next lowest is now the East of England (333/100,000 – no longer the East Midlands – now 336), the highest is the North East at 533/100,000.
  • The PHE summary also shows 1,858 people have died (up 148 from 1,710 people a week ago. The death rate in the South West is 33/100,000 – again the lowest for any English region (next lowest is the South East at 52/100,000, and highest are the North East and North West, both at 78/100,000, more than double the South West rate).

National level data

The latest data from theOffice for National Statistics on deaths:

“Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19), by age, sex and region”, for the week ending 29th May, shows:

  • The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 29 May 2020 (Week 22) was 11,256″
  • “The number of deaths was around or below the five-year average up to Week 12. The number of deaths increased between Weeks 13 and 16 before decreasing between Weeks 17 and 22, with the exception of Week 20 where the deaths increased.”
  • “Between Weeks 1 and 12, 138,916 deaths were registered, which was 4,822 fewer than the five-year average for these weeks. However, between Weeks 13 and 22, 157,687 deaths were registered, which was 57,961 more than the five-year average.”
  • “Of the deaths registered in Week 22, 1,822 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last eight weeks; this accounts for 18.5% of all deaths and is 767 deaths fewer than in Week 21.”
  • “The percentage of deaths involving COVID-19 continued to decrease or remain similar across all English regions; the North West had the highest number of COVID-19 deaths in Week 22 (282 deaths).”
  • “Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available), the number of deaths up to 29 May 2020 was 296,582, which is 53,118 more than the five-year average. Of these deaths, 45,748 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; this is 15.4% of all deaths.”

You can read the full article, and download the data on which it is based on the ONS website.

“The UK has recorded its lowest daily rise in the number of coronavirus deaths since before lockdown on 23 March, latest government figures show.” (BBC News)

In positive news: “The number of new UK cases on Monday – 1,205 – is also the lowest number since the start of lockdown.”There were “no new deaths announced in both Scotland and Northern Ireland for the second consecutive day.”There tend to be “fewer deaths reported on Mondays, due to a reporting lag over the weekend”, but nonetheless this is the first time the number of people who have died has been lower in a single day than on 23 March, the day lockdown began (when 74 people were reported as having died).Less positively: “The UK is only the second country – after the US – to pass the milestone of 40,000 deaths.” The total number of people to have died from or with the virus is now 40,597. Read the full BBC News article on lowest number of deaths since lockdown.

Lockdown saves 470,000 lives – study

A study by a team at Imperial College London – which also provided the research that led to the government’s decision to introduce lockdown – used disease modelling to predict how many deaths there would have been if lockdown had not happened. They found the lockdown saved 470,000 lives in the UK, and – for Europe, “estimated 3.2 million people would have died by 4 May if not for measures such as closing businesses and telling people to stay at home.” “That meant lockdown saved around 3.1 million lives, including

  • 470,000 in the UK,
  • 690,000 in France, and
  • 630,000 in Italy”

“The Imperial study assessed the impact of restrictions in 11 European countries – Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK – up to the beginning of May.” Read the study in the Nature journal.

Read a plain language BBC News summary from which the above quotations are taken.

Britain’s death toll from COVID-19 could have been halved if lockdown had been introduced a week earlier, a former member of the UK government’s scientific advisory group said on Wednesday… Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposed the lockdown on March 23. Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson told lawmakers that Britain had taken the right measures but too late:” (Reuters)

We shared a post about the differences in the total number of people reported to have died from or with Covid-19, by different measures. It links to a piece from the Office for National Statistics details and explains these differences.

Lockdown and loneliness

The ONS published an “Analysis of loneliness in Great Britain during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic”, saying: “For many of us, lockdown has meant that our interaction with our usual support networks has changed, and for some this has meant turning to the local community for support when we have needed it.” We know that from our group here!But the ONS found:

  • “5.0% of people in Great Britain (2.6 million adults) reported that they felt lonely “often” or “always” between 3 April and 3 May 2020, about the same proportion as pre-lockdown.”
  • “Of those asked, 30.9% (7.4 million adults) reported their well-being had been affected through their feeling lonely in the past seven days.”

Crucially, they add: “When asked whether they felt there were people in the community who could support them:

  • less than half of the chronically lonely (45%) said they “agreed” or “strongly agreed”. A further 25% said they “did not know”.
  • Among the “lockdown lonely”, “56.7% “agreed or strongly agreed” that they could get support from the community if they needed it.”
  • For both groups, this sense of community support was lower than the Great Britain average, which was closer to two-thirds (66.3%).”
  • “When asked if they had people who would be there for them if they needed help, both groups were also less likely to say they “agreed” or “strongly agreed” than the Great Britain average. Figure 6 shows that just under 7 in 10 (69.4%) of the chronically lonely gave this response, over 20 percentage points less than the Great Britain figure (92.3%).”

“Chronic loneliness” refers to people who feel lonely “often or always” (sample of 5,260 adults).“Lockdown loneliness” refers to people who said their well-being had been affected through having felt lonely in the last seven days and were “very” or “somewhat worried” about the effect of the coronavirus on their life (sample of 2,440 adults).Read the write-up of the loneliness research (and access the data).

At the global level, the Johns Hopkins University tracker shows:

  • 7,174,925 confirmed cases – an increase of 841,165 from 6,333,760 on Tuesday 2nd June. In other words, 13% of confirmed cases were confirmed in the past week.
  • 408,811 people have now died – meaning 30,571 died in the past week. In other words, 8% of people who died with the virus, died in the last week.
  • 7 countries have over 200,000 cases:
    • The USA – 1,968,867 cases, a weekly increase of 141,661 (8%)
    • Brazil – 707,412 cases, a weekly increase of 180,965 (15%)
    • Russia – 484,630 cases, a weekly increase of 61,444 (29%)
    • The UK – 290,575 cases, a weekly increase of 11,184 (4%)
    • India – 274,758 cases – a weekly increase of 67,575 (33%)
    • Spain – 241,966 cases, a weekly increase of 2,034 (0.8%) 
    • Italy – 235,561 cases – a weekly increase of 2,046 (0.9%)
  • There are seven countries where over 10,000 people have died where Covid-19 was involved:
    • The USA – 111,620 people have died (5,439 people died in the past week, 5.1% increase)
    • The UK – 40,968 (1,516 people died in the past week, 3.8% increase)
    • Brazil – 37,134 (5,935, 19%)
    • Italy – 34,043 (513, 1.5%)
    • France – 29,299 (356, 1.2%)
    • Spain – 27,136 (9, 0.03%)
    • Mexico – 14,053 (3,416, 32%)

It is important to say that different countries are testing and collecting data on deaths in different ways, making fair comparisons difficult. However, the Financial Times

It is also worth emphasising that these statistics cannot hope to convey the individuality of each person who has died, nor the grief and sadness of their loved ones and friends. We nonetheless believe sharing them is helpful to understand the pandemic, and to reduce as far as possible the number of people who suffer and die in future.

Notes

Please remember we have a (growing) list of resources to support your emotional and mental health during this time on our website. The following numbers may be useful:

  • Samaritans: 116 123
  • Domestic Violence Hotline: 0808 2000 247
  • Mind: 0300 123 3393
  • Age UK: 0800 169 6565
  • Childline: 0800 1111.